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# Bitcoin Dropped 20% Over the Past 3 Months and 10% Year-over-Year
- URL: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-dropped-20-over-the-past-3-months-and-10-year-over-year/
- Published: 2025-12-25T09:16:46.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-04T12:39:13.000Z
- Description: Bitcoin lost about one-fifth of its value over the past 3 months and shows negative annual performance. Price structure relative to moving averages and monthly RSI help determine whether this remains a correction within the cycle or signals a deeper reversal.
- Author: Axel Adler Jr.
- Tags: Technical analysis, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37

Bitcoin lost about one-fifth of its value over the past 3 months and shows negative annual performance. Price structure relative to moving averages and monthly [RSI](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-rsi/) help determine whether this remains a correction within the cycle or signals a deeper reversal.

## TL;DR

This brief analyzes price dynamics over the past 3 months and year-over-year through the lens of monthly RSI. The logic: the magnitude of the drawdown itself does not define the regime - what matters is RSI's position relative to long-term averages, which historically separated corrections from bear markets.

20%

BTC drop over 3 months

10%

Year-over-year decline

### **Bitcoin Price Performance**

![Table showing Bitcoin price changes across various time periods from one hour to one year with percentage changes.](https://axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-Performance.png)

Table showing Bitcoin price changes across various time periods from one hour to one year with percentage changes.

BTC drawdown over the past 3 months reached -19.7% (-$21.5K), with negative annual performance: -10.5% (-$10.4K). Meanwhile, the short-term picture has stabilized: week +1.5%, month roughly flat (-0.5%). Average price over the past 3 months ($101.5K) and year ($101.8K) nearly coincide. This underscores that for most of the period the market traded above current levels, with the main weakness concentrated in the recent decline. A double-digit 3-month drawdown is significant but not anomalous for Bitcoin. What matters more than the correction itself is its structure: stabilization at current levels after a sharp decline indicates a pause/consolidation and an attempt to form a local base. Confirmation of support will come from holding the range on subsequent tests. Check the Bitcoin [MVRV Ratio](https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio-definition-formula-cycle-signals/) to see valuation.

### **Bitcoin Monthly Price**

![Monthly RSI indicator for Bitcoin with 6-month, 12-month, and 4-year simple moving averages.](https://axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2025/12/Bitcoin-Monthly-Price--USD-.png)

Monthly RSI indicator for Bitcoin with 6-month, 12-month, and 4-year simple moving averages.

Monthly RSI stands at 56.5 and has dropped below the 12M SMA (67.3) - momentum is weaker than its average values for the first time since 2022\. RSI is now approximately two points away from the 4-year SMA (58.7). In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, RSI breaking below this level often accompanied transitions into deeper bearish phases. RSI provides context for interpreting the drawdown: the combination of double-digit decline and RSI dropping below the 4Y SMA has historically increased the probability of transitioning into a deeper bearish phase.

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### **FAQ**  

**Why is RSI more important than price itself for determining regime?**  
Price shows "what happened," RSI shows "how this affects trend structure." The same -20% drawdown can be a healthy correction or the start of a deep bear market. Context determines interpretation.

**What levels to watch in Q1 2026?**  
For RSI, holding above 55–58 preserves the chance for recovery, a sustained move below 55 increases the risk of a deeper downward phase.

### **CONCLUSIONS**  

A 20% drawdown over 3 months and negative annual performance paint a picture of significant correction. What becomes decisive is monthly RSI positioning: the current 56.5 reading sits 2 points from the 4-year average (58.7), which historically served as the regime boundary. The next 1–2 months (Q1 2026) will show whether RSI holds above the long-term 55–58 boundary or the market transitions into a deeper decline phase.

## Live Charts

Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:

[Technical Analysis](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/technical-analysis/) \- All price, trend, and momentum charts in one view.  
[RSI](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-rsi/) \- Relative Strength Index for momentum and overbought or oversold zones.  
[MVRV Ratio](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/) \- Market value vs realized value to identify valuation regimes and cycle risk.