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# Bitcoin Falls Below Its One-Year Median
- URL: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-falls-below-its-one-year-median/
- Published: 2026-11-09T08:15:13.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-09T08:47:09.000Z
- Author: Axel Adler Jr.
- Tags: Valuation models, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #am-631662d0-08f4-48ca-8fa2-c2898716572b

Bitcoin started the week at $74K, remaining below its one-year median.

## TL;DR

Price and coin profitability have weakened relative to their one-year benchmarks. We look at what this says about the cycle and which levels the market needs to reclaim this week.

$74K

Bitcoin price at the start of the week

$77K

365-day median price

$67K

365-day 25th percentile

1.047

Adjusted MVRV current level

### Bitcoin 365D Rolling Price Quantile Bands

![Bitcoin 365-day price quantile bands show price at $74K, below the $77K median and above the $67K 25th percentile.](https://axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/11/chart-1-8.png)

Bitcoin 365-day price quantile bands show price at $74K, below the $77K median and above the $67K 25th percentile.

From November 1 to 8, price fell from $78K to $74K (-4.4%). Since November 5, it has remained below the median for the past 365 days, which stands at $77K.

Price is trapped between $77K and the 25th percentile at $67K. A move back above the median would be the first sign of improving market conditions.

### Bitcoin Adjusted MVRV

![Bitcoin Adjusted MVRV fell to 1.047, below its SMA-365 of 1.054 but still above the break-even level of 1.](https://axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/11/chart-2-8.png)

Bitcoin Adjusted MVRV fell to 1.047, below its SMA-365 of 1.054 but still above the break-even level of 1.

Over the same week, Adjusted MVRV fell from 1.075 to 1.047\. For coins younger than seven years, this means the average premium over their on-chain cost basis narrowed from 7.5% to 4.7%.

Since November 6, the metric has been below its SMA-365, which stood at 1.054 on November 8\. As long as [MVRV](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/) remains above 1, this cohort retains an unrealized profit. A drop below 1 would mean an unrealized loss.

### FAQ

**Does this already mean the bull cycle is over?**  
Falling below the median and MVRV moving below its one-year average point to a weaker market, but do not confirm that the cycle is over.

**Is the lower quartile at $67K now a downside target?**  
It is a boundary in the distribution of past prices and does not determine where price will go next.

### Conclusions

Price remains below the $75.5K-$76K support range, so a short-term recovery has not materialized. The key question this week is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $77K and Adjusted MVRV can move back above its one-year average. Until that happens, the risk of further declines remains.

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### Live Charts

Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:

[Valuation Models](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/valuation-models/) — All valuation and cost-basis model charts in one view.  
[MVRV Ratio](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/) — Market value vs realized value to identify valuation regimes and cycle risk.  
[NUPL](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-nupl/) — Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.  
[RHODL Ratio](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-rhodl-ratio/) — Ratio of younger to older HODL bands to flag cycle tops and overheated demand.