> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://axeladlerjr.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Futures Bulls Are Back: Positioning Index Above 3 for the First Time Since October - URL: https://axeladlerjr.com/futures-bulls-are-back-positioning-index-above-3-for-the-first-time-since-october/ - Published: 2026-01-14T08:17:04.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-09T15:20:24.000Z - Description: Smoothed positioning has moved into a sustained bullish zone for the first time in three months. Sentiment confirms the local regime shift. - Author: Axel Adler Jr. - Tags: Derivatives & sentiment, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37 Positioning Index SMA-30d rose to 3.5 - the first breakout above the 3 level since October 2025\. Simultaneously, the Advanced Sentiment Index reached a peak of 93%, confirming the transition of both futures market models into bullish territory. ## TL;DR Smoothed positioning has moved into a sustained bullish zone for the first time in three months. Sentiment confirms the local regime shift. 3.5 Positioning Index, 30-day average 93% Advanced Sentiment Index peak 70% Sentiment after the pullback ### **Bitcoin Positioning Index** ![The Bitcoin Positioning Index SMA-30d chart shows the smoothed index rising to 3.5, the first breakout above 3 since October 2025.](https://axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/01/Bitcoin-Positioning-index.png) The Bitcoin Positioning Index SMA-30d chart shows the smoothed index rising to 3.5, the first breakout above 3 since October 2025. A composite positioning index that accounts for [open interest](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-open-interest-btc/) dynamics, [funding rate](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-funding-rates/), and long/short opening ratios across major cryptocurrency exchanges. Scale: -100 to +100\. Thresholds: > 20 BULLISH, > 50 EXTREME BULLISH, < -20 BEARISH, < -50 EXTREME BEARISH. Positioning Index SMA-30d rose from 2.1 to 3.5 - the first breakout above 3 since October 6, 2025, when the value reached 3.7 during the rally to $125K. The daily index reached 24 (BULLISH zone) amid an influx of aggressive long positions: OI growth of 1.89% with positive taker delta and funding at 0.0045\. Price rose 4.58% to $95,358, open interest increased to $12.18B. The SMA breakout above 3 after three months in the 0 ± 2 range signals a local shift in positioning on the Bitcoin futures market. Continuation trigger: SMA holding above 2 for one week. ### **Bitcoin: Advanced Sentiment Index** ![The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index chart shows sentiment pulling back from 93% to 70% while maintaining a bullish regime in the futures market.](https://axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/01/Bitcoin-Advanced-Sentiment-Index.png) The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index chart shows sentiment pulling back from 93% to 70% while maintaining a bullish regime in the futures market. A composite sentiment index for the futures market ranging from 0% to 100%. Thresholds: 80% - High Bull Sentiment, 50% - Neutral, 20% - High Bear Sentiment. Sentiment reached a local peak of 93.15% yesterday evening at a price of $95,061, then pulled back to the current 70%. The index remains well above the neutral threshold of 50% and above the SMA-30d (62.9%). For comparison: in mid-December, sentiment dropped to extreme lows of 10-15% during the correction to $85K - that was a real bearish extreme. The 23 pp pullback while price holds above $94K is interpreted as a release of overheating. However, this is a qualitative assessment, not a formal model signal. Deterioration trigger: drop below 50% with simultaneous price decline under $92K. Continuation trigger: holding above 60% during 24-48 hours of consolidation. ### **FAQ** **Why is SMA-30d important rather than the daily Positioning Index value?** The daily Positioning Index is volatile and can produce false signals due to one-off activity spikes. The SMA-30d smooths out noise and shows the sustained positioning trend. The SMA breakout above 3 after three months in the 0 ± 2 range means bullish positioning accumulated not over a single day but formed systematically. The last time this level was observed was in October 2025 before the move to $125K. **Is the sentiment pullback from 93% to 70% a reversal or a correction?**Formally, the model does not provide a definitive answer - the current value of 70% is above the 50% threshold (neutral) but below 80% (High Bull). Qualitatively: the 93% level was in the zone of extreme optimism, from which pullbacks are statistically likely. The current 70% remains above the SMA-30d (62.9%), indicating the preservation of a bullish bias. For comparison: in December, sentiment fell to 10-15% - that was a structural breakdown, not a correction. ### **CONCLUSIONS** Against the backdrop of [yesterday's market compression](https://axeladlerjr.com/realized-volatility-23-6-compression-has-reached-a-critical-threshold/), two models with different methodologies but the same data class (futures market) synchronously indicate a regime shift. Positioning Index SMA-30d broke above 3 for the first time since October 2025, signaling accumulation of bullish positions. Advanced Sentiment Index reached a peak of 93% and pulled back to 70% - interpreted as a release of overheating while maintaining bullish structure. Risk-on regime in derivatives. Main continuation trigger - Positioning SMA holding above 2 and sentiment above 60% during price consolidation in the $93-96K range. Main risk - sentiment dropping below 50% with Positioning SMA returning to the zone below 1, which would indicate exhaustion of momentum. ## Sign up for Adler AM Your Bitcoin morning brief in 3 minutes, before your day starts Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ## Live Charts Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts: [Derivatives](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/derivatives/) \- All funding, open-interest, and leverage charts in one view. [Open Interest (BTC)](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-open-interest-btc/) \- Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change. [Funding Rates](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-funding-rates/) \- Perpetual futures funding to track long-side or short-side leverage pressure. [SOPR](https://axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-sopr/) \- Spent Output Profit Ratio shows whether moved coins realize profit or loss.