What is Bitcoin Puell Multiple?
Bitcoin Puell Multiple compares daily miner revenue in USD to its 365-day moving average. It is a miner-focused cycle indicator: instead of tracking holder cost basis or unrealized profit, it measures whether miners are earning far less or far more than their long-term norm.
Because miner profitability affects issuance pressure and forced selling risk, Puell Multiple is often used to identify moments when miner stress is high or when miner economics are unusually favorable.
How it is calculated
The formula is daily miner revenue / 365-day average miner revenue. Daily miner revenue is the USD value of newly issued BTC plus fees. The 365-day average acts as the long baseline, so Puell tells you whether miners are earning below trend, near trend, or far above trend.
Key signal levels and thresholds
| Range | Interpretation | Typical use |
|---|---|---|
| Below 0.5 | Miner revenue deeply compressed | Stress, margin pressure, and possible supply-side exhaustion |
| 0.5 to 1.0 | Below long-term revenue norm | Recovering or still-compressed miner conditions |
| 1.0 to 3.0 | Revenue above trend | Healthier miner economics and trend participation |
| Above 3.0 | Miner revenue historically hot | Late-cycle overheating and higher distribution risk |
How to read the current regime
Puell is not about retail emotion or exchange flows. It is about the mining economy. Low readings tell you the supply side is under stress. High readings tell you miners are operating with unusually strong revenue conditions. That matters because miners are recurring natural sellers and their stress or comfort changes how much sell pressure the market can absorb.
Use the current value together with trend metrics like MVRV and Realized Price. A low Puell in a compressed valuation regime matters more than a low Puell in a market that is still broadly expensive.
Limitations and false positives
Puell thresholds drift across halving eras because block subsidy changes structurally alter issuance. It is also a miner-economics tool, not a direct demand indicator. Strong or weak readings can persist longer than expected, especially when price trend and energy economics move together.
Related metrics and next steps
Use Liquidity Flows if you want to place this metric inside the bigger supply and pressure picture. Go back to the Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics Hub if you want to choose a different path. The closest companion charts here are MVRV, Realized Price, and NUPL.
