Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
STH Profitability Ratio tracks if recent BTC buyers are in profit. A 1.0 cross signals a regime shift - learn the rules and filter false signals.
🎧 Morning Brief #125- audio debate on today’s market setup Morning Brief 1250:00/404.3493881× The last active selling pressure signal from the Sell-side Risk Ratio was recorded in
UTXO Age Bands show each cohort's cost basis by holding duration. Learn to read rising vs. falling bands, spot support levels, and filter false signals.
Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply at 8.05M BTC, Z-Score 2.66, down 5.5% from peak. Cycle comparison with C2016 and C2020 - key signals for March 2026.
Bitcoin Net Taker Volume SMA-7D reversed from -1.66 to +0.18 in under two weeks - buyers dominate for 3 days straight. Yet funding rates closed negative 23 of last 30 days. Reversal or trap?
STH and LTH Realized Price are the two cost-basis layers that define bull and bear structure in Bitcoin. Learn the crossover signal, current levels, and how to trade each zone.`
BTC trades 24% below STH realized price ($88.9K) while LTH cost basis holds at $52.9K. On-chain redistribution structure, key levels and triggers.
STH Realized Price = avg cost basis of coins held under 155 days. Above it = bull structure. Below = bear. Formula, live data, 4 cycle examples.
STH SOPR below 1.0 for 7 of 8 days signals sustained loss realization. Cohort cost basis at ~$89K vs. market price ~$67K - key supply zone to watch.
Has the 4-year Bitcoin cycle broken? Discover why Global M2 liquidity and structural ETF demand now overpower the mechanical halving supply shock.
An anomalous BTC outflow was recorded this week: -31,900 BTC in a single day, which historically corresponds to large-scale accumulation. At the same time, stablecoin netflow turned negative - liquidity began leaving exchanges alongside BTC.
The structural and regime indicators have moved into positive territory in sync for the first time in three months. The only remaining drag - the funding rate - is still negative.
