Short-term holders remain underwater relative to their entry price, but realized losses are minimal. Two views - position status (MVRV) and behavior (SOPR) - point to pressure without signs of capitulation.
The market shows an unusual combination: the share of holders in profit remains in the lower part of its multi-year range, while on-chain activity has already recovered noticeably.
Fees as a share of miner revenue have fallen to late-2015 levels, while hashrate is down 23% from its October peak. Over the same period, Bitcoin's price
The market is extremely compressed and has no clear direction. Bollinger Bands Range shows an extreme narrowing of the bands, while ADX confirms a complete lack of trend strength - a
The newest cohort of Bitcoin holders has recovered to nearly breakeven, while coins aged 3-6 months remain much deeper in unrealized loss. At the same time, this cohort'
Bitcoin's valuation has fallen into the lower end of its historical range, but the price remains about 13.3% above investors' adjusted average cost basis. The first
LTH SOPR remains below 1 at 0.92, even though the average cost basis of the entire long-term holder cohort is still well below the market price. This means
The price has recovered to $64.6K, but two flow indicators do not confirm an influx of fresh demand. The Demand-to-Issuance Ratio and Net Age Flow are recovering
Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index is at -13, still Neutral but sliding toward Fear. History shows +3.4% median 30-day returns; watch the -20 line.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
