Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
Master the mechanics of market deleveraging. Understand the relationship between High ELR, Open Interest, and the liquidity feedback loops that drive cascades.
Realized Price ($54.9K) is under threat as Bitcoin slides. LTH Cost Basis rises while Realized Price falls, compressing support into a $43K-$51K corridor.
SSR Oscillator is negative again after January's attempted recovery. USDT liquidity outflows confirm: the rebound has failed.
Understand the dangerous divergence between Open Interest and Price. We break down the 4 market regimes and how to trade the "Liquidation Cascade" setup.
Realized losses on the Bitcoin network have reached Luna 2022 crash levels, however the price context is fundamentally different - the current sell-off is occurring at $67K, not $19K, which changes the interpretation of the signal.
Bitcoin miner capitulation signals: difficulty -14%, Puell Multiple 30DMA <0.8, Cango sold 4,451 BTC. Hashrate drops, exchange flows stay stable.
Master Bitcoin derivatives with our 2026 guide to Open Interest (OI) and Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). Learn formulas, risk signals, and cycle analysis. Read more!
The bear market ongoing since November 2025 has entered a deep phase after Friday's crash with a -46% drawdown. Price has approached the 1.25x Realized Price Band, which historically served as the boundary between correction and capitulation.
Miner Reserve tracks BTC holdings in miner wallets; Outflow shows daily selling. Learn signal rules, thresholds (>10K BTC = elevated), and how to confirm with Puell Multiple.
On-chain and derivatives are signaling capitulation in sync: STH are realizing extreme losses, while long liquidation dominance has reached the 2026 high. Historically, such extremes have formed local bottoms.
Short-term holders are realizing losses and sitting on average 25% below their cost basis.
ash Ribbons use 30/60-day hashrate MAs to detect miner capitulation. Learn the buy signal rule, historical accuracy (64%), and how to confirm with Puell Multiple.
