Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
Sellers have regained control on derivatives after several weeks of buyer dominance, while US spot is not providing counter-demand - both signals point to a risk-off regime.
Learn how Long-Term and Short-Term Holders shape Bitcoin price. Master the Liquidity Pressure Model to identify market tops, bottoms & structural risk.
Overheated sentiment in the 80% zone ended with a $205M long liquidation cascade and a regime change.
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.
Smoothed positioning has moved into a sustained bullish zone for the first time in three months. Sentiment confirms the local regime shift.
Learn how Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) works: formula, historical zones, cycle signals, and how to combine with MVRV for better market timing.
Bitcoin realized volatility fell to 23.6%. Market compression suggests elevated breakout risk. Data-driven analysis of volatility and price range structure.
Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling coins at a loss since October 13, 2025. The weekly average SOPR remains steadily below one, while a negative Z-Score forms a picture of active selling at a loss.
MVRV Ratio definition: compares Bitcoin market cap to realized cap. Formula, interpretation zones, historical cycle tops/bottoms, and how to combine with other metrics.
Bitcoin drawdown at −33% vs historical −70–92%. CVDD shows price 2x above fair value. Early bear cycle stage - watch −40% threshold for deeper correction.
Bitcoin trades below key support levels - STH Cost Basis and moving averages. Both charts confirm: short-term holders are at a loss, and the current bounce lacks structural confirmation.
