Bitcoin on-chain analysis by Axel Adler Jr.
Know what moved Bitcoin this week.One on-chain report, every Monday.
Adler 💎 Insight turns a week of on-chain data into a short read: what changed, why it matters, and what to watch next.
New issue every Monday
- 3,000+
- subscribers on Adler 💎 Insight
- 28K
- followers on X
- 1,000+
- news outlets have cited my analysis
Daily signal. Weekly picture.
Adler 💎 InsightWeekly Report
The week in Bitcoin, read through on-chain data. One report, a few minutes to read.
- What changed in the market this week, and why it matters
- Holders' cost basis, short and long-term holders, exchange flows, derivatives
- What to watch next week
- Data and conclusions, no buy or sell signals
Adler ☕️ AMMorning Brief
Two on-chain metrics each weekday morning and what they mean today. In your inbox before the market wakes up.
- Two metrics, the key charts, one conclusion
- About 3 minutes to read
- Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Tech Selloff Adds to Pressure on Bitcoin
Read the briefTech stocks suffered their biggest one-day decline since the COVID pandemic. Investors began reassessing their AI expectations as the Democrats’ victory fueled concerns that new restrictions could slow data center construction.
TL;DR
The selloff in AI stocks was accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility. We examine the reasons behind the decline and how investors reducing risk in the stock market affects BTC.
- 6.36%
- Nasdaq session decline
- 12%
- Semiconductor index decline
- nearly 70%
- One-day VIX increase
- $75K
- Bitcoin level under pressure
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq-100 fell 6.36% during the session to 26,630 points. The S&P 500 technology sector lost 7.3%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12%. Selling hit companies whose revenue depends on the expansion of AI infrastructure particularly hard.
Democrats who won the gubernatorial elections in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia promised moratoriums on new data center construction. Such restrictions could delay purchases of chips and equipment and reduce suppliers’ expected revenue. Investors are already pricing this risk into stocks, although the election results alone do not mean projects have been halted.
VIX
The VIX rose nearly 70% in a day, from 16.6 to 28.2 points. This indicator is calculated from S&P 500 options prices. Its sharp rise suggests that investors expect larger swings in stock prices over the next 30 days.
Rising volatility can intensify selling: some funds reduce their positions to keep portfolio risk within set limits, and expectations of such selling put additional pressure on the market.
FAQ
Does a rising VIX mean the selloff is nearly over?
No. The index measures the expected size of price swings but does not identify when the market will turn.
Why do data center restrictions affect Bitcoin?
When reducing risk across their portfolios, investors may sell risk assets, including BTC. This can happen without any deterioration in the Bitcoin network’s own metrics.
Conclusions
Bitcoin came under heavy pressure, falling to $75K after recovering to $80K. A stabilizing Nasdaq and a declining VIX would indicate easing external pressure on BTC. As long as the stock selloff continues, the risk of further position reductions in the crypto market remains.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Market Cycles — All cycle-scale price and return charts in one view.
Pi Cycle Top — The 111-day and 2x350-day averages that crossed near past cycle tops.
Monthly Returns — Bitcoin returns by calendar month, with the current month to date.
Profitable Days — Share of trading days on which buying BTC is now in profit.
One chart, read for today
Each day one chart from the hub, with its latest value and date.
Briefs that explain the market best
Bitcoin 6% Above Its Yearly Average for the First Time Since November
Read the briefTwo Out of Three Metrics Confirm Bearish Phase
Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.
Read the briefWant the full picture every Monday? Get Adler 💎 Insight
Latest briefs
Short Liquidations Hit $290 Million in a Day
Holder behaviorShort-Term Holders’ Profit Cushion Shrinks to 1%
Derivatives & sentimentBitcoin Declines Amid Weakness in the Futures Market
Holder behaviorAddress Activity Has Fallen 43% Since December 2024
Liquidity & flowsBinance Hack: Estimated Losses of $6.3 Billion
Holder behaviorLTH distribution fell 22% over the week
Derivatives & sentimentMarket sentiment has cooled: the Fear & Greed Index falls to 51
Holder behaviorShort-Term Holders Are Actively Realizing Losses
Holder behaviorBitcoin Is 6% Above Young Coins' Cost Basis: The Cushion Is Shrinking
Liquidity & flowsExchange outflows at 1.5K BTC per day, futures neutral
Holder behaviorBitcoin Is 11% Above Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis
Holder behaviorWhales’ Unrealized Profit Fell 53% as Exchange Inflows Rose
Technical analysisBitcoin in a Correction: 1.5% Above Support
Holder behaviorLong-Term Holders Have Reduced Their Holdings by 345,000 BTC
Holder behaviorBitcoin holdings among new short-term holders rose by 422K BTC
Derivatives & sentimentInflation Accelerated, Bitcoin Fell 3.3%, and Open Interest Is Rising
Technical analysisBollinger Band Width Narrows to 4.9%: The Market Has Entered a Compression Phase
Holder behaviorLong-Term Holders in Profit Since 2023, With a 72% Cushion
MiningFees account for less than 1% of miner revenue: older miners under pressure
Derivatives & sentiment$520 Million in Long Liquidations: Stress Approached Three-Month Peaks
Market cyclesBitcoin fell to $82.8K after the release of the Fed minutes
Derivatives & sentimentBitcoin fell 2%, sellers gained the upper hand
Holder behaviorLong-term holders are reducing their positions for the seventh consecutive week, while the market absorbs the supply
Holder behaviorBitcoin 15% Above Cost Basis: Short-Term Holders Are Building Positions
Bitcoin on-chain analysis, explained
What is Bitcoin on-chain analysis?
It is reading Bitcoin's public blockchain data to see what holders actually do: at what price they bought, whether long-term holders are selling, and how much BTC moves to and from exchanges. Price shows what happened. On-chain data shows who is behind the move.
Which on-chain metrics do you track?
The cost basis of holder groups (Realized Price, MVRV), short-term and long-term holders, exchange flows, and derivatives data such as funding rates and open interest.
Where does the data come from?
Primarily from CryptoQuant, where I am a Verified Author.
What is the difference between Adler ☕️ AM and Adler 💎 Insight?
Adler ☕️ AM is a free brief, Monday to Friday: two on-chain metrics and what they mean today. Adler 💎 Insight is one weekly report every Monday on Substack, $30 per month: the whole week put together in a short read.
Who is Axel Adler Jr.?
A Bitcoin on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant Verified Author, with 28K followers on X. My analysis has been cited by more than 1,000 news outlets.