Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
Complete guide to the Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator: formula, interpretation zones, historical cycle signals, and how to combine it with Hash Ribbons and Miner Reserve data for smarter investment decisions.
Synchronized collapse in flows and stress spike point to capitulation. The key question is whether the market can hold $76K.
Learn what Supply in Profit measures, critical threshold levels (95%, 75%, 50%), historical cycle patterns, and how to use it for risk management.
Long liquidations dominated: 96.7%, oscillator at extreme; 30D SMA = 31.4%. Funding remains positive: 43.2% annualized, demand for long exposure is not broken - risk of repeated squeeze on new downside impulses persists.
The Fed left rates unchanged, rhetoric remained hawkish - the market did not see a quick "pivot." Against this backdrop, STH Realized Cap continues to decline and has dropped below $600B (approximately $599.8B).
Today's FOMC is the key macro trigger, while BTC's internal structure has already improved over recent days. If financial conditions do not tighten, the bounce may solidify, but if the dollar and yields strengthen, the market will quickly return to defensive mode.
Understand the UTXO mechanics behind realized vs unrealized profit, how NUPL is built, and how to use these signals for Bitcoin market cycle analysis.
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
Learn how MVRV Z-Score works, key thresholds, common mistakes, ETF impact, and a practical multi-indicator framework with real historical examples.
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
