Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
Master Bitcoin derivatives with our 2026 guide to Open Interest (OI) and Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). Learn formulas, risk signals, and cycle analysis. Read more!
The bear market ongoing since November 2025 has entered a deep phase after Friday's crash with a -46% drawdown. Price has approached the 1.25x Realized Price Band, which historically served as the boundary between correction and capitulation.
Miner Reserve tracks BTC holdings in miner wallets; Outflow shows daily selling. Learn signal rules, thresholds (>10K BTC = elevated), and how to confirm with Puell Multiple.
On-chain and derivatives are signaling capitulation in sync: STH are realizing extreme losses, while long liquidation dominance has reached the 2026 high. Historically, such extremes have formed local bottoms.
Short-term holders are realizing losses and sitting on average 25% below their cost basis.
ash Ribbons use 30/60-day hashrate MAs to detect miner capitulation. Learn the buy signal rule, historical accuracy (64%), and how to confirm with Puell Multiple.
Exchange reserves reversed from lows and increased by 34K BTC over two weeks. Supply growth amid weak price action is a negative signal for short-term dynamics.
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
Complete guide to the Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator: formula, interpretation zones, historical cycle signals, and how to combine it with Hash Ribbons and Miner Reserve data for smarter investment decisions.
Synchronized collapse in flows and stress spike point to capitulation. The key question is whether the market can hold $76K.
Learn what Supply in Profit measures, critical threshold levels (95%, 75%, 50%), historical cycle patterns, and how to use it for risk management.
Long liquidations dominated: 96.7%, oscillator at extreme; 30D SMA = 31.4%. Funding remains positive: 43.2% annualized, demand for long exposure is not broken - risk of repeated squeeze on new downside impulses persists.
