Bitcoin LTH MVRV fell to 1.24, near a yearly low, as price nears the $48.4K cost basis. Record 16M BTC supply signals holding, not capitulation.
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand has flipped to outflows: 135K BTC gone since the Oct 2025 peak and 30-day flow momentum at a record low near -102K BTC.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L stays negative a 5th month, but holder realized prices hold support at $48K-$56K. Watch this band for the next move.
MSTR is down 78% from its peak and its average BTC cost basis now sits above spot. What Strategy's regime shift means and the $75K level to watch.
Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has stalled at zero while long liquidations dominate at +18.4%. With no buyer demand, BTC's path of least resistance points lower.
STH realized cap drawdown hit -56% while aNUPL turned negative; LTH capital held near base. Pain is concentrated, not full cycle capitulation.
Bitcoin sales pressure stays silent for 1256 days as LTH realized supply matures toward 15M. Not a capitulation bottom - watch NUPL turning negative.
New Investor Flow turned negative at -$1.2B as fresh demand fades. BTC leans on Adjusted Realized Price at $58.4K — the line to hold before $46.7K.
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a hawkish dot plot. Bitcoin fell 4% below $64K while gold rebounded above $4,300, a risk-off signal.
Bitcoin's second capitulation wave peaked near $1.4B, almost half February's $2.6B. Seller exhaustion builds as the P/L ratio sits deep in capitulation.
Bitcoin SSRR hit the red zone at $60K as supply in loss overtook profit. CVDD marks the structural floor near $48K, the key downside level to watch.
Bitcoin bounced from $60K to $65.6K on returning taker demand, not a short squeeze. Funding Rate stayed positive 10 days straight - watch for overheating.
