🎧 Morning Brief #229 - audio debate. The price has recovered to $64.6K, but two flow indicators do not confirm an influx of fresh demand. The Demand-to-Issuance Ratio and
Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index is at -13, still Neutral but sliding toward Fear. History shows +3.4% median 30-day returns; watch the -20 line.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
Bitcoin's Local Market Stress Index rose to 16, driven by price alone. Exchange flows stay absent, so escalation above 40 is unlikely for now.
Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.
Bitcoin supply in profit recovered to 56% from June's 47% low, but the 90-day change stays negative. A cross above zero would confirm a reversal.
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
Bitcoin Realized Loss 30DMA peaked 19% above 2022 and has since cooled 56% to $597M, while Realized Profit sits at $257M. Watch the 1.0 P/L ratio.
Coinbase Premium Index at -0.042 after 78 days below zero, while weekly US spot ETF flows return to +$439M. ETF cohort still 22% underwater.
Realized volatility sits in the bottom 10% since 2016 while OI/market cap falls for 21 days. Leverage is exiting; watch the 200DMA at 72,666.
