Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
This brief examines the divergence between the mathematical and psychological assessments of the cycle bottom. The MVRV Z-Score signals anomalous pressure relative to past cycles, but NUPL does not confirm capitulation - and historically, sustained cycle reversals have rarely formed without it.
How OI and Funding Rate interact across 2,523 days of real data. 4 market quadrants, OI reset database, and 5 cycle case studies with exact figures from 2020 to 2026.
This brief covers liquidity quality and buying structure against the backdrop of BTC correcting to ~$63.8K. The key focus: USDT MC has been falling for 34 days, SSR is declining through capital outflow rather than stablecoin accumulation - ELR confirms this.
Realized Cap has been declining for the second consecutive month, while the 3-6 month cohort surged sharply as coins bought near the peak matured into it. This is a defense phase, not accumulation - with net capital flow remaining negative, there is no bullish reversal signal.
Funding Rate - a mechanism of periodic payments between longs and shorts in perpetual futures that keeps the contract price close to Bitcoin's spot price. It is simultaneously
At the start of the week, a sharp bearish trigger fired in the BTC futures market: at 01:00 UTC, $2.3B in Taker Sell Volume and approximately $81.4M in forced long liquidations were recorded. After the peak, pressure quickly subsided - the market moves into observation mode.
VDD Multiple compares 30-day vs 365-day spending velocity to detect cycle tops. Learn the >2.9 extreme threshold (top 5% of history), formula, and confirmation signals.
Bitcoin Sales Pressure inactive 1133 days. Price 22.8% above Realized Price ($54,803) - the threshold that triggers network stress for the first time since 2023.
Institutional demand via ETFs shows no sign of confident accumulation: over the past 7 days, total netflow came in at −11,042 BTC, with only two positive sessions out of seven. Meanwhile, exchange netflow has remained positive throughout February - spot market supply pressure persists.
Dormancy Flow divides market cap by annualized dormancy to find cycle bottoms. Learn the <250K buy zone threshold, formula, and how to confirm signals with MVRV and NUPL
Price structure holds in the lower zone of the Donchian channel, confirming the bearish regime. The Bull-Bear Structure Index is slightly recovering on the back of exchange outflows - the divergence of signals requires price confirmation before changing position.
Liveliness peaked after the price ATH and began declining - a signal of transition from distribution to accumulation. The question is not whether the bear cycle has started, but how deep and how long it will be.
