Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
Bitcoin trades $1K above 1.25x Realized Price after a 44.8% drawdown. Holding this zone keeps recovery open. Break below targets $54-58K.
Bitcoin Regime Score returns to positive territory (+14.1) after two weeks of bearish phase, but funding drops to -0.43%. Two signals, one question.
Positioning SMA-30d flipped to -3.1 as shorts dominate futures. Long liquidations rising to 18.6%. Key trigger: SMA-30d back above zero.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L 7DMA deepens to -$410M as STH SOPR holds below 1.0 for 9 days. Short-term capital under stress. Watch for return above neutral.
68% of BTC supply held by dolphins, whales and fish. Spending transactions at 532K vs SMA-30D 473K - network activity holds above trend.
Short-term BTC-S&P correlation broke down, but Bitcoin keeps underperforming equities. Here's what the price ratio reveals about the real risk regime.
STH Realized Price sits at $85,831 vs BTC at $66,946. YoY turned negative for first time since 2022. SOPR below 1.0 for 110+ days.
Track institutional Bitcoin demand via ETF flows, Coinbase Premium, and miner OTC balance. Signal zones, cycle examples, and a combined playbook.
LTH SOPR dropped below 1.0 in late February while net positions stay positive. Accumulation holds - but forced selling pressure is building.
Bitcoin ETF funds absorbed +63,000 BTC in 30 days. Weekly inflow pace is 2.6x the monthly average. STH holders remain underwater at -15.5K BTC/day.
Miner OTC balances sit near multi-year lows at 152K BTC, while exchange inflow 30DMA stays elevated. What this mixed signal means for Bitcoin supply pressure.
Exchange Whale Ratio spiked above its averages while the 100-1K BTC band hit 80% of inflow. Two signals point to rising large-seller pressure.
