Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
The structural and regime indicators have moved into positive territory in sync for the first time in three months. The only remaining drag - the funding rate - is still negative.
Discover how Global M2 and Spot ETF netflows are overriding the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle. Learn the thresholds, SQL formulas, and how to trade them.
Funding has been persistently negative for the second week in a row - short positions dominate the derivatives structure. Open interest has declined from $47.6B to $20.8B, signaling a major deleveraging event - the market has unloaded, but sentiment remains bearish.
The Sharpe Ratio is in deeply negative territory (-63 on the 365d, -287 on the fast version), and the MVRV Z-Score is at 0.49 - below its historical mean. The market is not paying for risk: risk-adjusted returns are negative, and network valuation is neutral but does not provide a buy signal.
A data-driven guide to the 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle: how it works, what the on-chain data actually shows across all 4 cycles, and how to use it without falling into its traps.
Supply in Loss has broken through the historically significant capitulation zone (-46%), while ETF netflow has returned to positive territory for the first time in five weeks. The question is whether this is a reversal or a bull trap.
Long spot + short perp = delta-neutral carry. Real data from 3,572 days: +738% in 2021, -14% in 2022, +431% in 2024. Entry rules, exit thresholds, and annual yield vs T-bills.
This brief covers the buildup of Bitcoin exchange supply over the past 45 days. As long as cumulative netflow remains positive, the potential for sustained price growth stays limited.
This brief examines the divergence between the mathematical and psychological assessments of the cycle bottom. The MVRV Z-Score signals anomalous pressure relative to past cycles, but NUPL does not confirm capitulation - and historically, sustained cycle reversals have rarely formed without it.
How OI and Funding Rate interact across 2,523 days of real data. 4 market quadrants, OI reset database, and 5 cycle case studies with exact figures from 2020 to 2026.
This brief covers liquidity quality and buying structure against the backdrop of BTC correcting to ~$63.8K. The key focus: USDT MC has been falling for 34 days, SSR is declining through capital outflow rather than stablecoin accumulation - ELR confirms this.
Realized Cap has been declining for the second consecutive month, while the 3-6 month cohort surged sharply as coins bought near the peak matured into it. This is a defense phase, not accumulation - with net capital flow remaining negative, there is no bullish reversal signal.
