Bitcoin on-chain analysis by Axel Adler Jr.
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The week in Bitcoin, read through on-chain data. One report, a few minutes to read.
- What changed in the market this week, and why it matters
- Holders' cost basis, short and long-term holders, exchange flows, derivatives
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Leverage Stays High as Basis Is Negative for 156 Straight Hours
Read the briefPerpetual Futures Discount Persists as Open Interest Rises to 367K BTC
TL;DR
The perpetual futures discount to spot reached a weekly low of 0.04%. Open interest rose by 22,000 BTC, one of the strongest weekly increases since August.
- 0.047%
- Perpetual futures discount
- 367K BTC
- Current open interest
- 22,000 BTC
- Weekly open interest increase
Perpetual Futures Trade at a Discount
Over the past day, BTC perpetual futures traded 0.047% below spot. The discount has widened since November 6, reflecting selling pressure in futures alongside rising open interest.
Watch the average basis. A return to zero would show that the discount has closed. A move above zero would mean futures are trading at a premium to spot.
Open Interest Rises Over the Week
Open interest now stands at 367.4K BTC. The build-up in positions against a weak basis leaves the market more exposed to forced deleveraging.
A decline in open interest would signal that leverage is being reduced.
FAQ
What Happened After Open Interest Last Reached a Similar Level?
A similar level was recorded on August 19. Bitcoin traded at $69,335 at the time. Its price was 14% higher a week later.
How Often Has the Basis Been This Low?
Since tracking began, the basis was at this level or lower in 1% of hours. That makes the reading rare.
Conclusions
Both charts point to correction risk. A negative basis is coinciding with a marked build-up in positions. The signal would turn neutral if the basis moved back into positive territory and open interest began to fall.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Derivatives — All funding, open-interest, and leverage charts in one view.
Open Interest (BTC) — Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change.
Funding Rates — Perpetual futures funding to track long-side or short-side leverage pressure.
Fear & Greed Index — Composite market sentiment for risk appetite and sentiment extremes.
One chart, read for today
Each day one chart from the hub, with its latest value and date.
Briefs that explain the market best
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Bitcoin on-chain analysis, explained
What is Bitcoin on-chain analysis?
It is reading Bitcoin's public blockchain data to see what holders actually do: at what price they bought, whether long-term holders are selling, and how much BTC moves to and from exchanges. Price shows what happened. On-chain data shows who is behind the move.
Which on-chain metrics do you track?
The cost basis of holder groups (Realized Price, MVRV), short-term and long-term holders, exchange flows, and derivatives data such as funding rates and open interest.
Where does the data come from?
Primarily from CryptoQuant, where I am a Verified Author.
What is the difference between Adler ☕️ AM and Adler 💎 Insight?
Adler ☕️ AM is a free brief, Monday to Friday: two on-chain metrics and what they mean today. Adler 💎 Insight is one weekly report every Monday on Substack, $30 per month: the whole week put together in a short read.
Who is Axel Adler Jr.?
A Bitcoin on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant Verified Author, with 28K followers on X. My analysis has been cited by more than 1,000 news outlets.