Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
LTH Realized Supply surged from 5.26M to 8.32M BTC in 3 months. But LTH SOPR fell below 1.0 - watch the March low at 0.798 as the key level.
Realized Cap dropped 3.23% since Jan 2026. Growth Rate 365DMA negative all 105 days. Outflow slowing in April - reversal signal to watch.
Bull-Bear Structure Index returns above baseline while P/L sentiment stays negative. Recovery phase confirmed - full bull regime not yet.
Bitcoin ETF Realized Price hits $74,232 - the break-even level for ETF holders. STH Cost Basis at $83,734 remains key resistance to watch.
BTC futures OI dropped from +8.9% to -7.2% in two weeks. Funding flipped negative across Binance, Bybit and OKX. Spot holds above $70K.
Exchange Netflow SMA-7D rebounded from -15,216 BTC to near zero. ETF flows recovered to +1,835 BTC after the April 7 drop.
Net Taker Volume is back above zero and liquidation pressure has eased, but Bitcoin still lacks confirmation of a full market reversal.
Futures sentiment reversed sharply over 3 days, but Bitcoin price structure only reached neutral. No confirmed regime change yet.
Bitcoin trades $1K above 1.25x Realized Price after a 44.8% drawdown. Holding this zone keeps recovery open. Break below targets $54-58K.
Bitcoin Regime Score returns to positive territory (+14.1) after two weeks of bearish phase, but funding drops to -0.43%. Two signals, one question.
Positioning SMA-30d flipped to -3.1 as shorts dominate futures. Long liquidations rising to 18.6%. Key trigger: SMA-30d back above zero.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L 7DMA deepens to -$410M as STH SOPR holds below 1.0 for 9 days. Short-term capital under stress. Watch for return above neutral.
