The newest cohort of Bitcoin holders has recovered to nearly breakeven, while coins aged 3-6 months remain much deeper in unrealized loss. At the same time, this cohort'
Bitcoin's valuation has fallen into the lower end of its historical range, but the price remains about 13.3% above investors' adjusted average cost basis. The first
LTH SOPR remains below 1 at 0.92, even though the average cost basis of the entire long-term holder cohort is still well below the market price. This means
The price has recovered to $64.6K, but two flow indicators do not confirm an influx of fresh demand. The Demand-to-Issuance Ratio and Net Age Flow are recovering
Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index is at -13, still Neutral but sliding toward Fear. History shows +3.4% median 30-day returns; watch the -20 line.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
Bitcoin's Local Market Stress Index rose to 16, driven by price alone. Exchange flows stay absent, so escalation above 40 is unlikely for now.
Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.
Bitcoin supply in profit recovered to 56% from June's 47% low, but the 90-day change stays negative. A cross above zero would confirm a reversal.
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
