Bitcoin on-chain analysis by Axel Adler Jr.
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- Holders' cost basis, short and long-term holders, exchange flows, derivatives
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Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reach $969 Million as Coinbase Premium Stays Negative
Read the briefWeakness in both fund flows and US spot demand is adding pressure to the market.
TL;DR
US ETF outflows totaled $969 million. The total spans 5 sessions. Coinbase Premium has stayed negative for 70 straight days.
- $969M
- US ETF outflows over 5 sessions
- 70 straight days
- Coinbase Premium below zero
- $766M
- Weekly decline in ETF flow measure
- −0.14%
- Current Coinbase Premium
US ETF Flow Over 5 Sessions
The measure fell by $766 million over the past week. It was this low or lower on only 15% of days over the past year. Fund demand is now clearly weaker.
Watch for outflows to turn into inflows. That would show whether ETF demand is returning.
Coinbase Premium: US Spot Demand
Coinbase Premium stands at −0.14%. This is one of the lowest readings of the past year and signals weak demand in the US spot market.
A move back above 0 would signal improvement.
FAQ
What Happened After the Last Similar Flow Setup?
A similar combination last appeared on July 2, 2026. Bitcoin traded at $61,560. A month later, the price was 2.1% higher.
How Often Has Coinbase Premium Been This Low?
Over the past year, it was this low or lower on 9% of days. This is a rare reading.
Conclusions
Together, the two measures support the case for a continued correction. Demand remains weak through both funds and US spot trading. That view would change if both channels returned to positive territory.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Liquidity Flows — All exchange-flow, ETF, and spot-demand charts in one view.
Coinbase Premium Index — Coinbase vs global market premium as a proxy for US spot demand pressure.
Exchange Netflow — Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
BTC US ETF Flow Monitor — US spot Bitcoin ETF daily flow, BTC-denominated accumulation, and fund leadership.
One chart, read for today
Each day one chart from the hub, with its latest value and date.
Briefs that explain the market best
Bitcoin 6% Above Its Yearly Average for the First Time Since November
Read the briefTwo Out of Three Metrics Confirm Bearish Phase
Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.
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Bitcoin on-chain analysis, explained
What is Bitcoin on-chain analysis?
It is reading Bitcoin's public blockchain data to see what holders actually do: at what price they bought, whether long-term holders are selling, and how much BTC moves to and from exchanges. Price shows what happened. On-chain data shows who is behind the move.
Which on-chain metrics do you track?
The cost basis of holder groups (Realized Price, MVRV), short-term and long-term holders, exchange flows, and derivatives data such as funding rates and open interest.
Where does the data come from?
Primarily from CryptoQuant, where I am a Verified Author.
What is the difference between Adler ☕️ AM and Adler 💎 Insight?
Adler ☕️ AM is a free brief, Monday to Friday: two on-chain metrics and what they mean today. Adler 💎 Insight is one weekly report every Monday on Substack, $30 per month: the whole week put together in a short read.
Who is Axel Adler Jr.?
A Bitcoin on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant Verified Author, with 28K followers on X. My analysis has been cited by more than 1,000 news outlets.