Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
Institutional demand via ETFs shows no sign of confident accumulation: over the past 7 days, total netflow came in at −11,042 BTC, with only two positive sessions out of seven. Meanwhile, exchange netflow has remained positive throughout February - spot market supply pressure persists.
Dormancy Flow divides market cap by annualized dormancy to find cycle bottoms. Learn the <250K buy zone threshold, formula, and how to confirm signals with MVRV and NUPL
Price structure holds in the lower zone of the Donchian channel, confirming the bearish regime. The Bull-Bear Structure Index is slightly recovering on the back of exchange outflows - the divergence of signals requires price confirmation before changing position.
Liveliness peaked after the price ATH and began declining - a signal of transition from distribution to accumulation. The question is not whether the bear cycle has started, but how deep and how long it will be.
Master Bitcoin's age-weighted metrics. Learn how CDD tracks old coin movement and Liveliness reveals accumulation vs distribution phases. Complete guide with formulas, historical examples, and trading applications.
Short-term holders are realizing profits for the first time in a week - seller pressure is easing. However, MVRV remains deeply below the norm, and the durability of the reversal has yet to be confirmed.
Master the mechanics of market deleveraging. Understand the relationship between High ELR, Open Interest, and the liquidity feedback loops that drive cascades.
Realized Price ($54.9K) is under threat as Bitcoin slides. LTH Cost Basis rises while Realized Price falls, compressing support into a $43K-$51K corridor.
SSR Oscillator is negative again after January's attempted recovery. USDT liquidity outflows confirm: the rebound has failed.
Understand the dangerous divergence between Open Interest and Price. We break down the 4 market regimes and how to trade the "Liquidation Cascade" setup.
Realized losses on the Bitcoin network have reached Luna 2022 crash levels, however the price context is fundamentally different - the current sell-off is occurring at $67K, not $19K, which changes the interpretation of the signal.
Bitcoin miner capitulation signals: difficulty -14%, Puell Multiple 30DMA <0.8, Cango sold 4,451 BTC. Hashrate drops, exchange flows stay stable.
