Only what can move Bitcoin today (on-chain, futures, flows, macro)
Bitcoin Net Taker Volume SMA-7D reversed from -1.66 to +0.18 in under two weeks - buyers dominate for 3 days straight. Yet funding rates closed negative 23 of last 30 days. Reversal or trap?
STH and LTH Realized Price are the two cost-basis layers that define bull and bear structure in Bitcoin. Learn the crossover signal, current levels, and how to trade each zone.`
BTC trades 24% below STH realized price ($88.9K) while LTH cost basis holds at $52.9K. On-chain redistribution structure, key levels and triggers.
STH Realized Price = avg cost basis of coins held under 155 days. Above it = bull structure. Below = bear. Formula, live data, 4 cycle examples.
STH SOPR below 1.0 for 7 of 8 days signals sustained loss realization. Cohort cost basis at ~$89K vs. market price ~$67K - key supply zone to watch.
Has the 4-year Bitcoin cycle broken? Discover why Global M2 liquidity and structural ETF demand now overpower the mechanical halving supply shock.
An anomalous BTC outflow was recorded this week: -31,900 BTC in a single day, which historically corresponds to large-scale accumulation. At the same time, stablecoin netflow turned negative - liquidity began leaving exchanges alongside BTC.
The structural and regime indicators have moved into positive territory in sync for the first time in three months. The only remaining drag - the funding rate - is still negative.
Discover how Global M2 and Spot ETF netflows are overriding the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle. Learn the thresholds, SQL formulas, and how to trade them.
Funding has been persistently negative for the second week in a row - short positions dominate the derivatives structure. Open interest has declined from $47.6B to $20.8B, signaling a major deleveraging event - the market has unloaded, but sentiment remains bearish.
The Sharpe Ratio is in deeply negative territory (-63 on the 365d, -287 on the fast version), and the MVRV Z-Score is at 0.49 - below its historical mean. The market is not paying for risk: risk-adjusted returns are negative, and network valuation is neutral but does not provide a buy signal.
A data-driven guide to the 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle: how it works, what the on-chain data actually shows across all 4 cycles, and how to use it without falling into its traps.
