Bitcoin on-chain analysis by Axel Adler Jr.
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Old Coins Move at a Loss as LTH-SOPR Falls to 0.94
Read the briefOld coins are moving at a loss while LTH Supply declines.
TL;DR
Long-held coins have started moving at a loss, while LTH Supply has declined. The monthly fall in LTH-SOPR was among the sharpest of the past year.
- 0.94
- Current LTH-SOPR
- 16.3M BTC
- Current LTH Supply
- 171.7K BTC
- Monthly LTH Supply decline
Bitcoin LTH-SOPR Falls to 0.94
LTH-SOPR measures the average profitability of coins moved by long-term holders. It has remained in loss territory for eight consecutive days. This means old coins moved below their acquisition cost on average.
Similar readings have occurred over the past year. The speed of the current shift into loss realization stands out. Watch for LTH-SOPR to recover above 1.
LTH Supply Continues to Decline
LTH Supply is declining. It now stands at 16.3 million BTC. It has fallen by 171.7K BTC over the past month.
Coins can cross the 155-day holding threshold as they age, so a change in LTH Supply does not necessarily require a purchase or sale. Watch whether the decline continues.
FAQ
What Followed the Previous Similar LTH-SOPR Reading?
A similar reading occurred on August 22, 2026. Bitcoin traded at $77,075 at the time. A month later, the price was 12.4% higher. This is historical context, not a forecast.
How Often Is LTH Supply This High?
Over the past year, LTH Supply was at least this high on 47% of days.
Conclusions
Both metrics support a correction scenario. The monthly decline in LTH-SOPR was among the sharpest of the past year. Old coins are still moving at a loss. The assessment would turn neutral if those movements returned to profit territory.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Holder Behavior — All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.
LTH-SOPR — Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
LTH vs STH Supply — Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
Realized Price — Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.
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Each day one chart from the hub, with its latest value and date.
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Bitcoin on-chain analysis, explained
What is Bitcoin on-chain analysis?
It is reading Bitcoin's public blockchain data to see what holders actually do: at what price they bought, whether long-term holders are selling, and how much BTC moves to and from exchanges. Price shows what happened. On-chain data shows who is behind the move.
Which on-chain metrics do you track?
The cost basis of holder groups (Realized Price, MVRV), short-term and long-term holders, exchange flows, and derivatives data such as funding rates and open interest.
Where does the data come from?
Primarily from CryptoQuant, where I am a Verified Author.
What is the difference between Adler ☕️ AM and Adler 💎 Insight?
Adler ☕️ AM is a free brief, Monday to Friday: two on-chain metrics and what they mean today. Adler 💎 Insight is one weekly report every Monday on Substack, $30 per month: the whole week put together in a short read.
Who is Axel Adler Jr.?
A Bitcoin on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant Verified Author, with 28K followers on X. My analysis has been cited by more than 1,000 news outlets.