Data-driven insights into Bitcoin’s market structure, flows, and macro drivers. Updated 5× per week.
Realized Price ($54.9K) is under threat as Bitcoin slides. LTH Cost Basis rises while Realized Price falls, compressing support into a $43K-$51K corridor.
SSR Oscillator is negative again after January's attempted recovery. USDT liquidity outflows confirm: the rebound has failed.
Realized losses on the Bitcoin network have reached Luna 2022 crash levels, however the price context is fundamentally different - the current sell-off is occurring at $67K, not $19K, which changes the interpretation of the signal.
Bitcoin miner capitulation signals: difficulty -14%, Puell Multiple 30DMA <0.8, Cango sold 4,451 BTC. Hashrate drops, exchange flows stay stable.
The bear market ongoing since November 2025 has entered a deep phase after Friday's crash with a -46% drawdown. Price has approached the 1.25x Realized Price Band, which historically served as the boundary between correction and capitulation.
On-chain and derivatives are signaling capitulation in sync: STH are realizing extreme losses, while long liquidation dominance has reached the 2026 high. Historically, such extremes have formed local bottoms.
Short-term holders are realizing losses and sitting on average 25% below their cost basis.
Exchange reserves reversed from lows and increased by 34K BTC over two weeks. Supply growth amid weak price action is a negative signal for short-term dynamics.
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
Synchronized collapse in flows and stress spike point to capitulation. The key question is whether the market can hold $76K.
Long liquidations dominated: 96.7%, oscillator at extreme; 30D SMA = 31.4%. Funding remains positive: 43.2% annualized, demand for long exposure is not broken - risk of repeated squeeze on new downside impulses persists.
The Fed left rates unchanged, rhetoric remained hawkish - the market did not see a quick "pivot." Against this backdrop, STH Realized Cap continues to decline and has dropped below $600B (approximately $599.8B).
