🎧 Morning Brief #172 - audio debate on today’s market setup
The share of Bitcoin supply in profit recovered from the March low of 53% to the current 63%, reflecting a noticeable improvement in network profitability. However, STH-SOPR SMA-7D as of May 18 remains near the neutral 1.0 level and still does not show a confident hold above this threshold.
TL;DR
Supply in Profit has recovered after the capitulation phase, but short-term holders are still not realizing sustained profits. There is still no behavioral confirmation of a reversal.
Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit (SMA-7D)
The metric reflects the share of all coins whose last movement price is below the current market price.
Supply in Profit SMA-7D went through a classic cycle of capitulation and partial recovery. In January 2026, the indicator was above 72%, after which it began a steady decline through February - down to a low of 53.6% in early March. This is one of the lowest levels of the current cycle.
Since March, the metric has been gradually recovering and reached 63.3% as of May 18. This is a moderate recovery zone: the indicator is already noticeably above the bottom, but still roughly 10 percentage points below the January highs.
The current level remains below the historical cumulative average of around 76.9%. This means the market is still in a recovery phase. A return above 70% while the current price dynamics hold would be the first signal of normalization in the supply structure.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR (SMA-7D)
The metric measures the ratio between the selling price and the purchase price of coins moved within the last 155 days. A value below 1.0 means that short-term holders are selling at a loss on average.
STH-SOPR SMA-7D reached the cycle low in early February 2026 at 0.967. This was a zone of clear capitulation, when short-term holders were broadly realizing losses.
The following recovery was gradual. In April, the indicator stabilized in the 1.001-1.009 range as price moved above $75k-$80k. However, as of May 18, STH-SOPR pulled back to 0.9994 - slightly below the neutral 1.0 level again - with price at $76.9k. This is the first move back below 1.0 after two weeks above this threshold.
The key question now is whether STH-SOPR can hold above 1.0 again or continue declining together with price. Losing the 1.0 level with price below $76k would increase the risk of retesting the March lows in Supply in Profit.
As a result, the two indicators show a mixed picture. Supply in Profit shows a steady recovery in network profitability, while STH-SOPR points to the fragility of the behavioral foundation behind this recovery. The main variable today is whether price can hold the $76k-$77k zone, which is enough to bring STH-SOPR back above 1.0.
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FAQ
Why is STH-SOPR below 1.0 more important than the rise in Supply in Profit? Supply in Profit reflects the structural state of the entire network. It is a slower and more inertial indicator. STH-SOPR shows the behavior of active market participants right now. If short-term holders are again selling without profit or at a loss even after the price recovery, it means the market still has not received full behavioral confirmation of a reversal.
Under what condition can the recovery be considered confirmed? The first validating signal would be a sustained hold of STH-SOPR SMA-7D above 1.0 for 5-7 trading days while price holds above $78k-$80k. In addition, Supply in Profit needs to rise toward the 68-70% zone, confirming that most of the supply has returned to a profitable position.
CONCLUSIONS
The market is in a recovery without confirmation mode.
Supply in Profit SMA-7D recovered from the March bottom of around 53.6% to 63.3%. This is a positive structural signal: the capitulation phase has already passed. However, STH-SOPR at 0.9994 as of May 18 shows that short-term participants are still sensitive to any price weakness.
The current stance is neutral with a cautious bias. Without STH-SOPR holding above 1.0 while price holds above $77k, aggressive longs remain weakly justified.
The main risk is another price pullback to $73k-$74k. This scenario could push STH-SOPR back into the 0.98-0.99 zone and stop the recovery in Supply in Profit.
Further Reading
- Bitcoin STH SOPR: What It Is and How to Use It
- Bitcoin Supply in Profit: Definition, Thresholds & Market Signals
- Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Profitability: Break-Even as Bull/Bear Signal
- STH vs LTH Realized Price: Support & Resistance Guide
Live Chart
Bitcoin STH-SOPR