Bitcoin STH-SOPR Explained: When New Buyers Sell at a Loss
What STH-SOPR below 1 says about new bitcoin buyers, how long loss-selling streaks lasted and how 2025–2026 compares.
By Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin on-chain analyst · Data from Jan 2012 to Nov 2, 2026
In short
- STH-SOPR compares the price short-term holders sell at with the price they paid. Below 1, they sell at a loss.
- From 2012 to Nov 2, 2026, the daily reading was below 1 on 43% of days. A single day below 1 means little; long streaks do.
- In the 12 months to Nov 2, 2026, the 7-day average spent three long stretches below 1, the longest 85 days.
Who counts as a short-term holder?
Coins that last moved less than about 155 days ago. These are mostly recent buyers: traders, ETF-era newcomers and anyone who bought the last rally. They react fastest to price, so their selling shows stress before long-term holders move.
What does STH-SOPR below 1 tell you?
New buyers are giving up and selling below their cost. In a bull market this tends to be short: buyers who held on through the dip stop selling at a loss, and the reading climbs back above 1. In a bear market it lasts for months, because every bounce brings sellers who just want their money back.
How long did loss-selling streaks last in past cycles?
Measured by the 7-day average below 1:
| Period | Days | Market |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2018 – Feb 18, 2019 | 100 | bear market low |
| Apr 6 – Jul 21, 2022 | 107 | Terra and Celsius collapse |
| Jun 14 – Jul 14, 2024 | 31 | correction in a bull market |
| Feb 25 – Apr 22, 2025 | 57 | correction |
| Oct 13, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026 | 85 | sell-off after the October 2025 high |
| Jan 20 – Apr 8, 2026 | 79 | continued weakness |
The 2024 and early 2025 corrections ended within one to two months. The streaks from October 2025 to April 2026 were longer, closer to the length seen in 2018 and 2022.
What was the deepest STH loss-selling day?
The lowest daily reading in the data is 0.806 on Apr 12, 2013, after the April 2013 crash. Since 2020, the lowest was 0.917 on Mar 13, 2020, the COVID crash. In 2026 the low through Nov 2 was 0.946 on Jan 23, 2026.
Why does 1 act as a line in bull markets?
Holders who bought recently treat their entry price as a reference. When the price falls back to it, many sell to get out even, and that selling can stall the rally. When the price comes down to it in a bull market, buyers who missed the move step in, and the level holds. Which side wins shows in how quickly STH-SOPR returns above 1.
FAQ
How is STH-SOPR different from SOPR?
SOPR covers all spent coins. STH-SOPR covers only coins younger than about 155 days, so it reacts faster and shows how recent buyers behave. See the SOPR chart.
How many days was STH-SOPR below 1 in 2026?
169 of the 306 days from Jan 1 to Nov 2, 2026.
Where can I see the current STH-SOPR?
On the live Bitcoin STH-SOPR chart, updated daily after the UTC close.
Related: STH realized price guide · Short-term holder profitability guide · Holder behavior charts