What is Bitcoin STH-SOPR?
STH-SOPR isolates the spent output profit ratio for short-term holders, typically coins held for less than 155 days. It tells you whether recent buyers are spending coins in profit or at a loss.
The key level is 1.0. Above 1 means short-term holders are realizing profit. Below 1 means they are realizing loss.
How it is calculated
STH-SOPR compares the value of short-term-holder coins at the moment they are spent with the value of those same coins when they were acquired. Only UTXOs younger than 155 days are included. That cutoff is widely used because it separates more reactive holders from structurally stickier long-term cohorts.
Key signal levels and thresholds
| Level | Interpretation | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Below 1.0 | Short-term holders are spending at a loss | Stress, capitulation, or weak trend structure |
| At 1.0 | Break-even line | Watch for reclaim or rejection around prior buyer cost basis |
| Above 1.0 | Short-term holders are spending at a profit | Healthy uptrend behavior or active profit-taking |
How to read the current regime
The current reading matters most relative to 1.0 and to trend. A quick wick above 1.0 is less important than repeated acceptance above it. In bull phases, the 1.0 line often acts like a reset zone where recent buyers defend break-even. In weak markets, repeated failure at 1.0 can show that recent buyers are still looking to exit on strength.
Use this page with Realized Price and MVRV when you need cost-basis context. If you want to compare fast short-term stress against the slower long-term cohort, move next to LTH-SOPR.
Limitations and false positives
STH-SOPR is noisy around local volatility and can whipsaw around 1.0. It also tracks only realized behavior of spent coins, not unrealized pressure sitting dormant in wallets. The 155-day boundary is useful, but it is still a cohort model, not a law of market structure.
Related metrics and next steps
If you want to widen the view, open Holder Behavior. The sharpest cross-checks here are SOPR, Realized Price, and NUPL. For a broader chart map, return to the Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics Hub.
