What it is
LTH-SOPR isolates the spent output profit ratio for long-term holders, typically coins held for more than 155 days. It answers a different question than STH-SOPR: when older, stickier coins finally move, are those holders realizing profit or realizing pain?
The key level is 1.0. Above 1 means long-term holders are, on average, spending in profit. Below 1 means even the older cohort is realizing losses.
How to read it
The current reading matters most relative to 1.0 and to trend. Persistent acceptance above 1 usually points to profitable long-term-holder distribution. Dips below 1 are rarer than they are in STH-SOPR and usually carry more weight because they imply older cohorts are also under stress.
This is why LTH-SOPR is usually more useful for slower cycle framing than for fast short-term signals. It tells you more about durable distribution and deep reset conditions than about day-to-day trader emotion.
Below 1 vs above 1 regimes
| Level | Interpretation | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Below 1.0 | Long-term holders are spending at a loss | Rare stress event, deeper reset, or broad capitulation context |
| At 1.0 | Break-even line | Watch whether older supply is still defending profit or beginning to realize pain |
| Above 1.0 | Long-term holders are spending at a profit | Distribution, profit realization, or healthy long-term gain taking |
How LTH-SOPR differs from STH-SOPR
STH-SOPR reacts faster because it tracks newer coins and newer market participants. LTH-SOPR moves more slowly because it only reflects spending by older holders. That makes it less useful for quick tactical calls, but more useful when you want to know whether deeper long-term supply is beginning to distribute or capitulate.
If STH-SOPR is weak while LTH-SOPR stays constructive, the market may still be dealing with short-term stress rather than broad long-term damage. If both weaken together, the message is more serious.
What it says about long-term profit realization
LTH-SOPR matters because Bitcoin cycles are shaped by whether older holders are still sitting tight or are actively realizing gains. When the metric stays well above 1, it often means the long-term cohort is using strength to distribute profit. When it falls toward or below 1, it suggests the older supply base is no longer insulated from stress.
Use this page with STH-SOPR, LTH vs STH Supply, Supply in Profit, and Supply in Loss when you want to separate fast short-term stress from slower long-term realization behavior.
Limitations
LTH-SOPR is not a precise trading trigger. Older cohorts move less often, so the signal can be slower and less reactive around local turns. It also tracks only realized activity, not all dormant supply that could still come to market later.
Use it with cost-basis, profitability, and holder-behavior tools instead of treating it as a standalone cycle call.
Related metrics and next steps
For the wider cohort and cost-basis picture, open Holder Behavior. The most useful follow-ups here are STH-SOPR, LTH vs STH Supply, Supply in Profit, and Supply in Loss. For a broader chart map, return to the Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics Hub.
