Bitcoin holder behavior & cost basis
Who holds, at what price, and what they do.
Holder behavior shows who owns Bitcoin, at what price they bought, and whether they are sitting on profit or selling. Short-term holders, whose coins moved within the last 155 days, react fast and shape short-term support and resistance. Long-term holders show whether structural conviction still holds. Where each group breaks even is where selling pressure often changes.
Today’s reading · data for (UTC)
Average cost basis
$53,947Price +40.6% vs cost basisThe average price at which every coin last moved, the market-wide cost basis.
Open chart STH-SOPRShort-term holder profit
0.997Near breakevenProfit or loss realized by short-term holders around the 1.0 breakeven line.
Open chart Supply in ProfitSupply in Profit
58.8%Share of all coins currently worth more than their last move price.
Open chart LTH vs STH SupplyWho holds the supply
16.3M BTCHow supply splits between long-term and short-term holders over time.
Open chartHow to read holder behavior
Start with two questions
Which holder group is under pressure, and where is its break-even price? Most holder signals become clear once those two answers are known. Holder metrics describe the same market from different angles, so read them together rather than chasing one indicator.
Short-term vs long-term holders
Short-term holders are mostly recent buyers. They react to price quickly, so their behavior drives tactical stress and shifts in support and resistance. See STH-SOPR.
Long-term holders have held for at least 155 days. Their behavior shows whether conviction holds or whether they distribute into strength. See LTH-SOPR and LTH vs STH Supply.
Cost basis as market structure
The price at which a group bought is its break-even level. When price returns to it, holders who were in profit are suddenly flat, and their behavior there often decides whether the level holds. Realized Price is the market-wide cost basis; MVRV shows how far price sits above it.
Unrealized vs realized profit
Unrealized profit is paper gain or loss: how much holders would make if they sold now (NUPL, Supply in Profit). Realized profit shows what they actually lock in when coins move on-chain (SOPR). The gap between the two shows whether pressure is building or being released.
When holder data disagrees with the rest of the market
Holders are one layer. If holder metrics point one way and exchange flows or leverage point another, check the Bitcoin Analysis Framework for the combined read, or Liquidity & flows for exchange and ETF demand.
11 holder charts
Cost basis anchors
Where holders break even, and how far price sits from it.
- Average cost basis Realized PriceThe average price at which every coin last moved, the market-wide cost basis.$53,947Price +40.6% vs cost basis
- Cost basis bands Realized Price BandsMultiples of realized price that frame where price trades vs cost basis.$53,9471× RP
- Support / ResistanceThe daily close against four holder cost-basis levels.$53,947Price +40.63% vs Realized Price
- MVRV Z-ScoreThe capitalization gap in its historical context.0.73Market cap above realized cap
Profit and loss when coins move
Whether coins that move are sold at a profit or at a loss, by holder group.
- Profit on coins sold SOPRWhether coins moved on-chain today were sold at a profit or at a loss.0.997Near breakeven
- Short-term holder profit STH-SOPRProfit or loss realized by short-term holders around the 1.0 breakeven line.0.997Near breakeven
- Long-term holder profit LTH-SOPRProfit or loss realized by long-term holders when they spend coins.0.970Selling at a loss
Ownership rotation
How much supply is in profit or loss, and whether ownership is maturing or churning.
- Supply in ProfitShare of all coins currently worth more than their last move price.58.8%
- Supply in LossShare of all coins currently worth less than their last move price.41.2%
- Who holds the supply LTH vs STHHow supply splits between long-term and short-term holders over time.16.3M BTC
- Circulating SupplyThe unspent-output supply in BTC, with lost coins not estimated away.20,109,154 BTC+3,003 BTC over 7 days
Latest holder briefs
Charts show where holders stand. Insight reads the week.
- Which holder group is under pressure this week?
- How close is price to short-term holders' cost basis, and what happened there before?
- Are long-term holders distributing into strength or absorbing supply?
Adler ☕️ AM
Two on-chain metrics each weekday morning and what they mean today. About 3 minutes to read.
Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.Bitcoin holders, explained
What is a long-term holder in Bitcoin?
A long-term holder (LTH) holds coins that have not moved for at least 155 days. Coins held this long are statistically unlikely to be spent soon, so LTH supply shows how much Bitcoin sits with patient investors.
What is a short-term holder?
A short-term holder (STH) holds coins that moved within the last 155 days. These are mostly recent buyers, who react faster to price changes, so their behavior often drives short-term moves.
What is the short-term holder cost basis?
It is the average price at which short-term holders acquired their coins, also called STH Realized Price. Above it, recent buyers are in profit on average; below it, they are at a loss.
Why does holder behavior matter for Bitcoin price?
Holders decide how much supply reaches the market. When long-term holders sell into strength or short-term holders sell at a loss, supply rises. When both hold, less Bitcoin is available to buy.
Which holder chart should I start with?
Start with Realized Price to see the market-wide cost basis, then MVRV for how far price sits above it, then STH-SOPR to see whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or a loss.