What it shows
This page compares how much Bitcoin sits with long-term holders versus short-term holders. That makes it a direct read on cohort structure: are coins settling into mature hands, or rotating back into newer, more reactive wallets?
Looking at the two series together is far more useful than reading either line in isolation. The important question is not just whether LTH Supply is high or STH Supply is high. It is whether supply is moving from one cohort to the other.
How to read LTH vs STH structure
When LTH Supply rises while STH Supply falls, the market is usually maturing into stronger hands. Coins are aging, churn is cooling off, and short-term supply is being absorbed. When STH Supply expands while LTH Supply contracts, the market is usually rotating the other way: older holders are distributing, newer holders are taking the other side, and speculative activity is becoming more important.
This is why the page matters for cycle structure. It helps separate accumulation from transfer, and transfer from stress.
What rising LTH Supply means
Rising LTH Supply usually means more coins are surviving long enough to age into the long-term cohort. That often lines up with accumulation, patience, and a market structure where supply is being taken off the table rather than constantly recycled.
On its own, that does not guarantee immediate upside. But it often tells you the market is becoming less fragile because a larger share of supply is sitting with holders who are historically less reactive.
What rising STH Supply means
Rising STH Supply usually means more coins are sitting with newer holders. That can happen during strong bullish participation when fresh demand is flooding in, but it can also happen later in the cycle when older holders are handing coins to newer speculators.
The meaning depends on context. A growing short-term cohort is not automatically bearish, but it does tell you that more supply is sitting in faster hands.
What cohort rotation can signal
The most useful signal comes from rotation between the two lines. An LTH up / STH down structure often looks like absorption and maturation. An LTH down / STH up structure often looks like transfer, speculation, or broader distribution into newer hands. If both move sharply during stress, the market is usually still trying to find steadier ownership.
Use this page with LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR when you want to connect ownership structure with realized behavior, or with Supply in Profit and Supply in Loss when you want the profitability side of the same story.
Limitations
LTH and STH supply are structural metrics, not fast trading signals. Cohort shifts can take time to matter, and the 155-day split is a practical cohort rule rather than a perfect boundary between strong and weak hands. The page also does not tell you why ownership changed. It only shows that it did.
Use it with profitability, realized-behavior, and cycle-context metrics instead of on its own.
Related metrics and next steps
If you want the wider cohort and cost-basis backdrop, open Holder Behavior. The most useful follow-ups here are LTH-SOPR, STH-SOPR, Supply in Profit, and Supply in Loss. For a broader cycle read, step back to the Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics Hub.
