Bitcoin Reserve Risk
Long-term holder conviction relative to price.
Bitcoin Reserve Risk today
As of , Reserve Risk is 1.21 on the ×10⁻³ display scale, compared with 1.24 a week ago. It relates price to accumulated holder opportunity cost; compare the history on the same scale.
- Current
- 1.21Reserve Risk, ×10⁻³
- 7-day change
- −0.03Change in daily readings
- 30-day average
- 1.29
- 1-year average
- 1.39
- 1-year low
- 1.00Jun 30, 2026
- 1-year high
- 2.15Nov 10, 2025
Bitcoin Reserve Risk chart
Daily values (UTC) · BTC price: left axis, log scale · Reserve Risk, ×10⁻³: right axis
What each zone means
| Zone | Reading |
|---|---|
| Lowest quarter of history | below 1.73 |
| Middle half of history | 1.73 to 5.14 |
| Highest quarter of history | above 5.14 |
Reference ranges describe this measure and are not trading instructions.
Last eight weeks
| Date | Value | State |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | Lowest quarter of history | |
| 1.24 | Lowest quarter of history | |
| 1.29 | Lowest quarter of history | |
| 1.31 | Lowest quarter of history | |
| 1.34 | Lowest quarter of history | |
| 1.37 | Lowest quarter of history | |
| 1.37 | Lowest quarter of history | |
| 1.33 | Lowest quarter of history |
How this measure works
What it measures
Reserve Risk relates the Bitcoin price to the HODL Bank: how much long-term holders have given up over time by not selling. The chart uses a log scale; colours mark the lowest and highest quarter of its own history, not valuation thresholds.
Formula
Reserve Risk = BTC price ÷ HODL Bank, the accumulated opportunity cost of holding instead of selling
How to read it
Lower values mean price is low relative to what holders have given up by holding; higher values mean the opposite. Compare the reading with its own history. Over the last year the low was 1.00 on Jun 30, 2026 and the high was 2.15 on Nov 10, 2025.
Reserve Risk values are small, so the chart and cards show them in thousandths (×10⁻³): 1.30 on the chart means 0.0013.
Long ranges (5Y, 10Y and All) show a 7-day average to reduce daily noise. YTD and 1Y, the cards and the summary above use daily values. The tooltip shows both.
To keep everyday moves readable, the chart axis leaves out the most extreme 2% of readings in the selected range. Those days are marked with triangles at the chart edge, and the tooltip shows their value.
Limitations
Versions differ in how the HODL Bank is built, so values from other sites are not directly comparable. Read it together with other charts.
Latest Adler AM briefs
Bitcoin Reserve Risk, explained
What is Bitcoin Reserve Risk?
Reserve Risk relates the Bitcoin price to the HODL Bank: how much long-term holders have given up over time by not selling. The chart uses a log scale; colours mark the lowest and highest quarter of its own history, not valuation thresholds.
What is the latest Bitcoin Reserve Risk reading?
On Nov 7, 2026, the daily reading is 1.21. A week earlier it was 1.24. Values use the ×10⁻³ display scale.
How is the Bitcoin Reserve Risk chart calculated?
Reserve Risk = BTC price ÷ HODL Bank, the accumulated opportunity cost of holding instead of selling. The BTC price on the chart is the daily close of the same day.
How often is the Bitcoin Reserve Risk chart updated?
Once a day, after the UTC day closes. The date of the latest value is shown at the top of the page.
What history does the Bitcoin Reserve Risk chart cover?
The chart covers Aug 16, 2010 to Nov 7, 2026. Gaps are not filled with estimates.
Is Bitcoin Reserve Risk a buy signal?
No. Compare the reading with holder profitability, flows and leverage. A single measure does not determine the next price move.
Read this with
Valuation models guideWhat changed this week, and what is just noise?
A weekly report on the readings that moved, with the charts and dates behind them.
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