What is the Bitcoin Power Law model?
The Bitcoin Power Law model is a long-term regression framework fit to Bitcoin price history since October 20, 2009. It uses the same legacy coefficients as the old standalone implementation and projects a median price curve with quantile bands around it.
Those bands are not arbitrary. They are scaled by halving-era residual compression, which means the expected spread between floor and ceiling narrows over successive Bitcoin epochs even while the median curve keeps rising.
How to read the model bands
Q01 Floor marks the model’s extreme lower band. Q25 Support and Q75 Resistance frame the middle distribution around fair value, while Q99 Ceiling shows the upper extreme. The Q50 Median is the central trend line of the model.
When Bitcoin trades far below the median, the market is depressed relative to long-term trajectory. When it trades near the upper bands, the market is more extended relative to the model.
How halving epochs affect the forecast
The model uses epoch-specific compression rather than one fixed band width. The current regime is Epoch 5, where the Q99/Q01 spread is about 2.7x. After the next halving in Apr 2028, the post-halving regime compresses toward roughly 1.8x.
This means the long-run median still rises with time, but the expected distance between lower and upper bands narrows as Bitcoin matures.
How to use the Power Law forecast
This is a structural model, not a short-term trading system. It is most useful for framing where current price sits relative to long-term fair value and how future cycle targets compare across epochs.
Analysts usually combine the Power Law with realized price, MVRV, NUPL, and holder-behavior metrics. The Power Law gives the long-duration price trajectory, while on-chain indicators show whether current market positioning is stretched or compressed around that path.
