Daily Bitcoin analysis focused on market structure, liquidity flows, and macro signals. Adler AM is updated 5× per week - clear insights, no noise.
STH realized cap drawdown hit -56% while aNUPL turned negative; LTH capital held near base. Pain is concentrated, not full cycle capitulation.
Bitcoin sales pressure stays silent for 1256 days as LTH realized supply matures toward 15M. Not a capitulation bottom - watch NUPL turning negative.
New Investor Flow turned negative at -$1.2B as fresh demand fades. BTC leans on Adjusted Realized Price at $58.4K — the line to hold before $46.7K.
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a hawkish dot plot. Bitcoin fell 4% below $64K while gold rebounded above $4,300, a risk-off signal.
Bitcoin's second capitulation wave peaked near $1.4B, almost half February's $2.6B. Seller exhaustion builds as the P/L ratio sits deep in capitulation.
Bitcoin SSRR hit the red zone at $60K as supply in loss overtook profit. CVDD marks the structural floor near $48K, the key downside level to watch.
Bitcoin bounced from $60K to $65.6K on returning taker demand, not a short squeeze. Funding Rate stayed positive 10 days straight - watch for overheating.
BTC exchange inflows hit +114K while stablecoin flow fell to -105M. Supply up, demand fading - the structural cause of Bitcoin's 22% drop.
Puell Multiple 30DMA drops to 0.74 as miner revenue compresses. How current stress compares to 2018 and 2022 bottoms, and key levels to watch next.
Realized Cap 30D Change falls to -1.1% as $12B leaves the Bitcoin network. aSOPR below 1 for 13 days confirms capitulation. Key trigger: aSOPR above 1.0.
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score cooled to 0.32 as net realized losses ran 22 straight days. Stress is real but valuation already reset; watch losses ease to zero.
Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.
