Bitcoin Adaptive Momentum Has Entered the Extreme Zone
Bitcoin price is trading at the $95K level, Adaptive Momentum registers the third extreme signal in three years.
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Two Out of Three Metrics Confirm Bearish Phase
Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.
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Bitcoin in Oversold Territory
Bitcoin is testing a critical oversold zone as the downtrend weakens.
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Lack of Bullish Enthusiasm Creates Downside Risk
Monthly changes in futures Open Interest have risen to +15% with a neutral Funding Rate.
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Retail Could Become a New Trigger for Bitcoin Rally
Against the backdrop of announced payments worth $300–500 billion from tariff revenues, retail demand could become a new trigger for a BTC rally in 2026
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Short-Term Holders Have Accumulated 5.44M BTC
Despite the fact that most short-term holder coins are underwater, the STH cohort continues to grow.
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Yields Brake Growth, BTC Basis Dropped to Zero
UST10Y shows local growth, Bitcoin basis has dropped to zero.
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Institutions Taking Profits, New Players Buying
ETFs show outflows of -$250M per day, but new investors continue entering - the divergence signals redistribution of coins from large holders to retail.
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Bitcoin Under Pressure at risk-off Threshold
The composite risk oscillator remains one step away from a risk-off signal, while STH-SOPR confirms unprofitable selling.
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Market Experiencing Stress, Price Holds Above $100K
Profit/loss and local stress indicators simultaneously point to market tension, but price remains above $100K.
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STH Selling at a Loss, Futures Momentum Weak
Short-term holders continue selling at a loss but the volume of unprofitable sales has decreased.
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LTHs are Taking Profits, Growth Limited Until Distribution Completes
Long-term holders have sold 810K BTC since July, further growth requires completion of the current distribution wave.
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