🎧 Morning Brief #111 - audio debate on today’s market setup
At the open of the new trading week, the BTC futures market faced a sharp bearish impulse from sellers - in the 00:00-02:00 UTC window on February 23, a liquidation phase formed, with the peak hitting at 01:00 UTC. The signals are confirmed simultaneously by two metrics: aggressive sell volumes and forced long liquidations.
TL;DR
At the start of the week, a sharp bearish trigger fired in the BTC futures market: at 01:00 UTC, $2.3B in Taker Sell Volume and approximately $81.4M in forced long liquidations were recorded. After the peak, pressure quickly subsided - the market moves into observation mode.
Bitcoin Taker Sell Volume - All Exchanges (Hourly)
The metric reflects the total volume of market sell orders (taker sell) executed against the order book - a direct indicator of seller aggression.
During the period from February 22 18:00 to 23:00 UTC, volume held at minimal levels: $44-105M per hour - a background level typical of low-activity Sunday sessions. A sharp break occurred after midnight UTC: at 00:00, volume jumped to $349M, and at 01:00 UTC reached $2,306M - nearly 22 times above the upper bound of the preceding background ($105M/hour). Total volume over 12 hours came to $4.4B, of which more than half fell within a single 60-minute window. After 02:00 UTC, the indicator began fading rapidly: $476M - $267M - $137M by 06:00 UTC.
The sharp and short-lived nature of the spike suggests this was not a sustained distribution wave, but a targeted sell sweep - likely amplified by a level breach and cascading stop-loss triggers. The fading pressure over subsequent hours reduces the probability of an immediate continuation lower, though the impulse itself at the weekly open sets the tone for the Monday session.
Bitcoin Long Liquidations - All Exchanges, All Symbols (Hourly)
The metric shows the volume of forcibly closed long positions in BTC across derivatives exchanges.
The entire period from February 22 18:00 to 22:59 UTC saw no liquidations - less than 0.3 BTC in total over 5 hours, confirming the absence of any meaningful price movement during late Sunday hours. The turning point arrived in sync with the taker sell spike: at 00:00 UTC, 263 BTC were liquidated, and at 01:00 UTC - a peak of 1,247 BTC in a single hour (approx. $81.4M at ~$65.3K/BTC). In total over 12 hours, approximately 1,533 BTC in longs were forcibly closed (approx. $100.1M), with nearly the entire volume concentrated in the two adjacent hours of 00:00-01:00 UTC. By 05:00 UTC, the liquidation flow had nearly completely dried up.
A peak of 1,247 BTC in one hour is a significant level - such impulses typically correspond to a fast sharp price move that sweeps vulnerable longs. The rapid fade in liquidations after 02:00 UTC signals that the nearest pool of exposed positions has been cleared - reducing immediate liquidation risk, though not ruling out renewed pressure on a retest of the level.
Both metrics paint a single scenario: an aggressive seller impulse at the weekly open triggered a cascade of forced closures, after which the acute phase concluded.
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FAQ
What does a $2.3B taker sell spike in one hour mean?
It indicates that a large volume of aggressive market sell orders was executed within a short window - sellers were taking liquidity from order books without waiting for buyers to step in. Such spikes typically coincide with sharp price drops and the triggering of stop orders.
Under what conditions will the risk resume?
If price returns to the level from which the impulse originated and taker sell volume begins rising above $300-400M per hour again, alongside the reappearance of long liquidations - that would signal a retest with potential continuation to the downside.
CONCLUSIONS
The open of the trading week on Monday, February 23, was marked by a sharp bearish impulse: at 01:00 UTC, the synchronized peak in taker sell volume to $2.3B and 1,247 BTC in forced long liquidations (approx. $81.4M) points to a liquidation cascade amplified by stop-order triggers. However, the rapid fade of both indicators by 02:00-03:00 UTC suggests the acute phase is complete: the nearest pool of vulnerable positions has been cleared. The current regime is cautiously neutral with a bearish bias. The key trigger for deterioration is a return of sell pressure above background levels on a retest of the key level; the key risk is the scenario in which the Monday impulse turns out to be only the first move of a broader decline, rather than a one-off liquidation flush.