BTC has gained 20%, but two indicators - the US spot premium and open interest - do not yet confirm that the move was driven by strong US demand and the addition of new leverage. We examine what is driving this rally.
TL;DR
Coinbase Premium remains negative, while open interest denominated in BTC has fallen by 8.7%. The rally is accompanied by deleveraging, and US spot demand does not yet appear to be its main driver.
Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Index
The metric measures the difference between the BTC price on Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT): a positive reading indicates a Coinbase premium and stronger demand from the US, while a negative reading indicates a discount.
The index has remained negative throughout the rally and has not crossed above zero once. The discount has narrowed noticeably - the reading improved from -0.11 to -0.046 - but Coinbase has not moved into a premium. US spot demand has strengthened, but not enough to become the clear leader of the move.
US investors do not yet appear to be the main source of this rally. Stronger confirmation would require the index to move above zero and remain there. Until that happens, the price increase lacks full confirmation from Coinbase.
Bitcoin: Open Interest
In dollar terms, OI rose by 11.7% to $25B. However, much of this increase is explained by the rise in BTC itself. When denominated in Bitcoin, open interest fell from 366K to 334K BTC, or by 8.7%.
This means the rally was accompanied by a reduction and closure of existing positions rather than aggressive opening of new ones. For the market structure, this is a healthy sign - less accumulated leverage and a lower risk of a liquidation cascade. At the same time, the existing fuel for further movement is also shrinking.
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FAQ
If the price is rising, why is this not considered strong bullish confirmation?
The price increase alone does not show who is driving the move. Coinbase Premium remains negative, while open interest in BTC is declining. The rally therefore lacks confirmation from both strong US spot demand and an expansion in derivatives positions.
What would change the picture and confirm the trend's durability?
The key confirmation from the US would be a sustained move in the Coinbase Premium Index above zero. For derivatives, what matters is not simply an increase in OI, but its recovery without overheated funding or excessive leverage. This would show that the market is beginning to build new positions after the initial deleveraging.
CONCLUSIONS
Bitcoin has risen by 20% but lacks full confirmation from two key market segments. Coinbase Premium remained below zero throughout the move - US spot demand did not lead the rally. At the same time, open interest denominated in BTC fell by 8.7%, pointing to deleveraging rather than aggressive opening of new positions.
This does not make the rally weak, but it changes its structure: the price is rising faster than new positions are being built. The main confirmation signal would be a sustained move in Coinbase Premium into positive territory and stabilization of BTC-denominated OI without renewed overheating in derivatives. Until that happens, the risk is that once deleveraging ends, the move will need a new source of demand to continue.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Open Interest (BTC) - Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change.
Coinbase Premium Index - Coinbase vs global market premium as a proxy for US spot demand pressure.
Funding Rates - Perpetual futures funding to track long-side or short-side leverage pressure.
Exchange Netflow - Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
BTC US ETF Flow Monitor - US spot Bitcoin ETF daily flow, BTC-denominated accumulation, and fund leadership.