What is the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio?
The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with realized capitalization, which is the network's aggregate on-chain cost basis. The point of this page is simple: how far above or below holder cost basis is Bitcoin trading right now?
An MVRV of 1.0 means market value and realized value are equal. Above 1 means the market is profitable on aggregate. Below 1 means Bitcoin is trading below aggregate cost basis, which has historically aligned with deeper stress and better long-horizon risk or reward.
How it is calculated
The formula is MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap. Market cap values every circulating coin at the current BTC price. Realized cap values each coin at the price when it last moved on-chain. That difference is why MVRV is more useful than raw market cap for cycle analysis: it compares current valuation with actual historical cost basis.
Key signal levels and thresholds
| Range | Interpretation | Typical use |
|---|---|---|
| Below 1.0 | Market below aggregate cost basis | Deep stress and late bear-market valuation |
| 1.0 to 2.0 | Near cost basis to moderate profit | Fair-value and early bull-market context |
| 2.0 to 3.5 | Strong unrealized profit cushion | Bull-market expansion with rising distribution risk |
| Above 3.5 | Historically stretched valuation | Cycle-top risk zone, not an automatic sell trigger |
How to read the current regime
Use the current reading in two steps. First, ask where MVRV sits relative to 1.0 and 3.5. Second, ask whether the move is confirming or diverging from other profitability and cost-basis metrics. A high MVRV without corresponding profit realization can stay elevated longer than bears expect. A low MVRV during structural breakdown can stay depressed longer than bulls want.
On this page, the current regime is Fair Value. That is a valuation read, not a full market thesis. To judge whether the market is merely rich or actually topping, compare it with NUPL, Realized Price, and SOPR.
Limitations and false positives
MVRV is strong for macro valuation and weak for exact short-term timing. It can stay above 3.5 for longer than expected during euphoric blow-off phases, and it can sit below 1 for months during prolonged bear markets. It also says nothing by itself about leverage, exchange supply, or whether spot demand is still absorbing profit-taking.
Related metrics and next steps
For the wider cost-basis and cohort picture, open Holder Behavior. The cleanest cross-checks here are NUPL, Realized Price, and STH-SOPR. If you want the broader chart map, return to the Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics Hub.