Bitcoin holds around $91K with divergence between rapid improvement in speculative metrics and deteriorating fundamental flows, while the stress index stands at 67.8 in the elevated zone
Bitcoin under pressure from short-term holder loss-taking with volatility above 83%.
Bitcoin price is trading at the $95K level, Adaptive Momentum registers the third extreme signal in three years.
Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.
Bitcoin is testing a critical oversold zone as the downtrend weakens.
Monthly changes in futures Open Interest have risen to +15% with a neutral Funding Rate.
Against the backdrop of announced payments worth $300–500 billion from tariff revenues, retail demand could become a new trigger for a BTC rally in 2026
Despite the fact that most short-term holder coins are underwater, the STH cohort continues to grow.
UST10Y shows local growth, Bitcoin basis has dropped to zero.
ETFs show outflows of -$250M per day, but new investors continue entering - the divergence signals redistribution of coins from large holders to retail.
The composite risk oscillator remains one step away from a risk-off signal, while STH-SOPR confirms unprofitable selling.
Profit/loss and local stress indicators simultaneously point to market tension, but price remains above $100K.
