Daily Bitcoin analysis focused on market structure, liquidity flows, and macro signals. Adler AM is updated 5× per week - clear insights, no noise.
Bitcoin miner capitulation signals: difficulty -14%, Puell Multiple 30DMA <0.8, Cango sold 4,451 BTC. Hashrate drops, exchange flows stay stable.
The bear market ongoing since November 2025 has entered a deep phase after Friday's crash with a -46% drawdown. Price has approached the 1.25x Realized Price Band, which historically served as the boundary between correction and capitulation.
On-chain and derivatives are signaling capitulation in sync: STH are realizing extreme losses, while long liquidation dominance has reached the 2026 high. Historically, such extremes have formed local bottoms.
Short-term holders are realizing losses and sitting on average 25% below their cost basis.
Exchange reserves reversed from lows and increased by 34K BTC over two weeks. Supply growth amid weak price action is a negative signal for short-term dynamics.
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
Synchronized collapse in flows and stress spike point to capitulation. The key question is whether the market can hold $76K.
Long liquidations dominated: 96.7%, oscillator at extreme; 30D SMA = 31.4%. Funding remains positive: 43.2% annualized, demand for long exposure is not broken - risk of repeated squeeze on new downside impulses persists.
The Fed left rates unchanged, rhetoric remained hawkish - the market did not see a quick "pivot." Against this backdrop, STH Realized Cap continues to decline and has dropped below $600B (approximately $599.8B).
Today's FOMC is the key macro trigger, while BTC's internal structure has already improved over recent days. If financial conditions do not tighten, the bounce may solidify, but if the dollar and yields strengthen, the market will quickly return to defensive mode.
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
