Daily Bitcoin analysis focused on market structure, liquidity flows, and macro signals. Adler AM is updated 5× per week - clear insights, no noise.
Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.
Bitcoin is testing a critical oversold zone as the downtrend weakens.
Monthly changes in futures Open Interest have risen to +15% with a neutral Funding Rate.
Against the backdrop of announced payments worth $300–500 billion from tariff revenues, retail demand could become a new trigger for a BTC rally in 2026
Despite the fact that most short-term holder coins are underwater, the STH cohort continues to grow.
UST10Y shows local growth, Bitcoin basis has dropped to zero.
ETFs show outflows of -$250M per day, but new investors continue entering - the divergence signals redistribution of coins from large holders to retail.
The composite risk oscillator remains one step away from a risk-off signal, while STH-SOPR confirms unprofitable selling.
Profit/loss and local stress indicators simultaneously point to market tension, but price remains above $100K.
Short-term holders continue selling at a loss but the volume of unprofitable sales has decreased.
Long-term holders have sold 810K BTC since July, further growth requires completion of the current distribution wave.
The Fed cut rates and completed its quantitative tightening program, against this backdrop Bitcoin declined to local support levels.
