Deleveraging: Sentiment Crashed from 80% to 45% After $205M Long Liquidations
Overheated sentiment in the 80% zone ended with a $205M long liquidation cascade and a regime change.
3 min read
Bitcoin
Bitcoin insights, price analysis, and market signals from Adler AM. Weekly context, on-chain data, and actionable BTC research for investors and traders.
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STH Discount Compresses to -4%: Price Tests Cost Basis While Profit-Taking Surges to 35K BTC
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
4 min read
STH Down 3%: $100K Level to Become a Wall of Resistance
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.
4 min read
Futures Bulls Are Back: Positioning Index Above 3 for the First Time Since October
Smoothed positioning has moved into a sustained bullish zone for the first time in three months. Sentiment confirms the local regime shift.
4 min read
Realized Volatility 23.6%: Compression Has Reached a Critical Threshold
Bitcoin realized volatility fell to 23.6%. Market compression suggests elevated breakout risk. Data-driven analysis of volatility and price range structure.
3 min read
STH SOPR Below 1.0: Short-Term Holders Realizing Losses
Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling coins at a loss since October 13, 2025. The weekly average SOPR remains steadily below one, while a negative Z-Score forms a picture of active selling at a loss.
3 min read
−33% Correction vs Historical −70%: Doesn't Look Final Yet
Bitcoin drawdown at −33% vs historical −70–92%. CVDD shows price 2x above fair value. Early bear cycle stage - watch −40% threshold for deeper correction.
3 min read
Market Attempts Recovery, But Structure Remains Bearish
Bitcoin trades below key support levels - STH Cost Basis and moving averages. Both charts confirm: short-term holders are at a loss, and the current bounce lacks structural confirmation.
3 min read
Spot Leads the Market: Bitcoin Rally Without Aggressive Leverage
Bitcoin recovered above $92,000 amid a return of risk appetite. The composite derivatives pressure index has returned to positive territory, but spot market is currently leading the rally rather than leverage - structurally, this is a healthier dynamic.
3 min read
Pressure Oscillator in Accumulation Zone: Market Holds Not on Demand, but on Absence of Selling
The market is in an accumulation zone. The On-Chain Pressure Oscillator holds near the accumulation boundary, while short-term holders remain at a loss relative to their average entry price.
3 min read
Bitcoin Shifts to Risk-On Mode
Structural indicators are signaling a synchronized transition from a phase of weakness into a phase of strength. The key question is whether price can establish itself above the upper channel boundary to continue the move.
3 min read
Aggressive Sellers Dominate, but Price Holds for Now
Bitcoin consolidates around $88–89K amid sustained sell-side pressure in derivatives markets. Two charts show synchronized deterioration in both cumulative pressure and current momentum.
3 min read