Lack of Bullish Enthusiasm Creates Downside Risk
Monthly changes in futures Open Interest have risen to +15% with a neutral Funding Rate.
2 min read
Axel Adler Jr.
Institutional Bitcoin research for serious investors • On-chain • Futures • ETFs • Macro • 10 min/week • Zero guesswork.
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Retail Could Become a New Trigger for Bitcoin Rally
Against the backdrop of announced payments worth $300–500 billion from tariff revenues, retail demand could become a new trigger for a BTC rally in 2026
2 min read
Short-Term Holders Have Accumulated 5.44M BTC
Despite the fact that most short-term holder coins are underwater, the STH cohort continues to grow.
2 min read
Yields Brake Growth, BTC Basis Dropped to Zero
UST10Y shows local growth, Bitcoin basis has dropped to zero.
2 min read
Institutions Taking Profits, New Players Buying
ETFs show outflows of -$250M per day, but new investors continue entering - the divergence signals redistribution of coins from large holders to retail.
2 min read
Bitcoin Under Pressure at risk-off Threshold
The composite risk oscillator remains one step away from a risk-off signal, while STH-SOPR confirms unprofitable selling.
2 min read
Market Experiencing Stress, Price Holds Above $100K
Profit/loss and local stress indicators simultaneously point to market tension, but price remains above $100K.
2 min read
Featured
STH Selling at a Loss, Futures Momentum Weak
Short-term holders continue selling at a loss but the volume of unprofitable sales has decreased.
2 min read
LTHs are Taking Profits, Growth Limited Until Distribution Completes
Long-term holders have sold 810K BTC since July, further growth requires completion of the current distribution wave.
2 min read
The Fed Eased Policy, but Powell Gave No Guarantee for December
The Fed cut rates and completed its quantitative tightening program, against this backdrop Bitcoin declined to local support levels.
2 min read
Bitcoin Under Volatility Pressure Ahead of Fed Meeting
The Fed is in an easing phase, today's meeting expected to cut rates by 25 bp, Bitcoin testing support at $112.3K amid volatility surge to 54%. TL;
2 min read
Local Bullish Reversal Confirmed by Structure and Market Sentiment
Bull-Bear Structure Index rose above zero for the first time since October 12 -market dynamics and sentiment have synchronously turned bullish. TL;DR Technical reversal confirmed: both indicators in positive
2 min read