The minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed that most participants consider another rate hike likely by year-end. By the morning after the release, bitcoin had fallen to $82.8K.
TL;DR
The Fed remains on a tightening path, while bitcoin continues a decline that began before the minutes were released. We examine the document and changes in the market regime.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
The minutes from the Fed's September 15-16 meeting confirm its tightening stance. At that meeting, the Fed unanimously raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00%. Most participants believed another increase would likely be needed by year-end, but no specific meeting was identified.
The main reason is insufficient progress in bringing inflation down. Fed staff raised their inflation forecast for 2026-2028 and do not expect inflation to return to 2% until 2029. If new data confirm persistent price pressures, the case for a rate hike will strengthen. Further tightening will raise financing costs and could increase pressure on stocks and bitcoin.
Bitcoin Regime Score
The minutes were released on October 7 at 18:00 UTC. After the release, bitcoin held at $83.4K for a while, but by 04:00 UTC on October 8, it had fallen to $82.8K. Over that period, the Regime Score fluctuated between -26 and -22, reaching -22 by morning.
The decline began before the minutes were released. Overnight on October 7, the price fell from $85.5K to $83.9K. Over the week, bitcoin fell 1.6%, while the Score declined from -13 to -22.
If the indicator falls below -30, it will enter bearish territory. A return above zero will show that positive signals once again outweigh negative ones.
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FAQ
Was the entire October 7 decline related to the minutes? No. Most of the decline occurred before the release, with the sharp drop beginning overnight, roughly 16 hours before the document came out. From $83.4K in the evening to $82.8K the following morning, the price fell another 0.8%.
Does a reading of -22 indicate a bear market? No. On the Regime Score scale, bearish territory begins below -30. The indicator is currently in the neutral zone, but its negative reading indicates that bears have the edge.
Conclusions
By the morning after the minutes were released, bitcoin had fallen to $82.8K. The Regime Score remains in the neutral zone, with negative signals outweighing positive ones. A return above zero will indicate an improvement in the balance of signals. A drop below -30 will mark the indicator's transition into bearish territory.
Live Charts
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Open Interest (BTC) - Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change.
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Exchange Netflow - Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
Fear & Greed Index — Composite market sentiment for risk appetite and sentiment extremes.