Leverage Stays High as Basis Is Negative for 156 Straight Hours

Perpetual Futures Discount Persists as Open Interest Rises to 367K BTC

Perpetual Futures Trade at a Discount

Over the past day, BTC perpetual futures traded 0.047% below spot. The discount has widened since November 6, reflecting selling pressure in futures alongside rising open interest.

Watch the average basis. A return to zero would show that the discount has closed. A move above zero would mean futures are trading at a premium to spot.

Open Interest Rises Over the Week

Open interest now stands at 367.4K BTC. The build-up in positions against a weak basis leaves the market more exposed to forced deleveraging.

A decline in open interest would signal that leverage is being reduced.

FAQ

What Happened After Open Interest Last Reached a Similar Level?
A similar level was recorded on August 19. Bitcoin traded at $69,335 at the time. Its price was 14% higher a week later.

How Often Has the Basis Been This Low?
Since tracking began, the basis was at this level or lower in 1% of hours. That makes the reading rare.

Conclusions

Both charts point to correction risk. A negative basis is coinciding with a marked build-up in positions. The signal would turn neutral if the basis moved back into positive territory and open interest began to fall.

Live Charts

Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:

Derivatives — All funding, open-interest, and leverage charts in one view.
Open Interest (BTC) — Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change.
Funding Rates — Perpetual futures funding to track long-side or short-side leverage pressure.
Fear & Greed Index — Composite market sentiment for risk appetite and sentiment extremes.