At the peak of the second wave, the market realized 19% less profit than at the peak of the first, even though Bitcoin’s price was higher. Losses also declined. On average, short-term holders are moving coins at a profit, but that profit has narrowed.
TL;DR
The higher price has not led to increased profit-taking. This may suggest that sellers are holding back in anticipation of further gains.
Bitcoin Realized Profit / Loss
From mid-May through August 19, realized losses dominated the market almost continuously. On August 20, the balance shifted toward profits. At the peak of the first wave, on August 26, realized profits over seven days totaled $9.1 billion, with Bitcoin at $78.6K. At the peak of the second wave, on September 24, the total was $7.3 billion: 19% less, even though Bitcoin was trading at $84.1K.
Over the same periods, realized losses also declined, from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. Both totals therefore fell despite the higher price. By September 28, net realized profit over seven days stood at $4.3 billion.
Bitcoin STH SOPR
Since August 20, STH SOPR has remained above 1: on average, short-term holders are moving coins at a profit. But that profit is narrowing. At the August 26 peak, it was 2.8%; at the September 23 peak, it was 1.6%; and by the end of September 28, it had fallen to 1%.
On September 17, during the pullback to $76.5K, the indicator fell to 1.003 before turning higher. Profit on coins moved by this group narrowed to 0.3%, but the balance did not shift toward losses. A move below 1 would mean that short-term holders were moving coins at a loss on average.
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FAQ
If the indicator is above 1, are all short-term holders in profit? No. It only accounts for coins that have moved, not all coins held by this group.
Does lower profit-taking mean holders are waiting for higher prices? Not necessarily, but it may mean that holders are in no hurry to sell.
Conclusions
At the September peak, the market realized 19% less profit than at the August peak, despite the higher price. Losses also declined.
A return to the September high of $87.2K would increase holders’ unrealized profits, assuming their coins’ cost basis remains unchanged. The main sign of deterioration would be STH SOPR falling below 1 while the Realized Profit / Loss metric turns negative.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
SOPR - Spent Output Profit Ratio shows whether moved coins realize profit or loss.
NUPL - Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.
Exchange Netflow - Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.