Over the past week, bitcoin’s price moved closer to the average cost basis of short-term holders. At the same time, STH SOPR fell below 1, with coins from this group moving at a loss.
TL;DR
Short-term holders retain a small unrealized profit cushion, but losses now dominate among the coins being moved. We examine how close the market has come to their cost basis and what changes would indicate that this pressure is easing.
Bitcoin STH MVRV 155 days Range
From October 27 to November 3, STH MVRV fell from 1.054 to 1.018. The price is now only 1.8% above the average cost basis of coins younger than six months, compared with a 5.4% cushion a week earlier. Over that period, the price fell from $80.1K to $77.2K.
The indicator moved closer to its 155-day average of 0.998. A reading of 1 marks the boundary between unrealized profit and loss for the group. The current cost basis is $75.8K, and a price decline below that level would put the group at an unrealized loss.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR
The seven-day average of STH SOPR fell from 1.002 to 0.998 over the same week. The indicator dropped below 1 on October 30 and has remained there for five consecutive days.
This means the profitability indicator for spent coins has shifted toward losses. A return of the seven-day average above 1 would indicate that this metric is back in positive territory. That has not happened yet.
FAQ
Why is the price above short-term holders’ cost basis while SOPR is below 1? The price remains above the average cost basis of the entire group. SOPR accounts only for coins that have moved: their cost basis may be higher, so they can move at a loss.
Does a SOPR of 0.998 mean all short-term holders lost 0.2%? No. The indicator applies only to coins that have moved and points to a small average loss on those coins. It does not measure every holder’s performance: some may still be in profit, while others may have larger losses.
Conclusions
Short-term holders’ profit cushion has narrowed considerably, and the result for coins being moved is already negative. A return of SOPR above 1 alongside a recovery in MVRV would signal improvement. The main risk is a further price decline that would put the entire cohort at an unrealized loss.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Realized Price - Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.
NUPL - Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.
Supply in Loss - Share of supply held at a loss to flag stress and capitulation zones.