STH Under Heavy Pressure: MVRV Signals Capitulation
Short-term holders are realizing losses and sitting on average 25% below their cost basis.
3 min read
Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Daily Bitcoin analysis focused on market structure, liquidity flows, and macro signals. Adler AM is updated 5× per week - clear insights, no noise.
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Reserves Reversing: +34K BTC Returned to Exchanges from Lows
Exchange reserves reversed from lows and increased by 34K BTC over two weeks. Supply growth amid weak price action is a negative signal for short-term dynamics.
3 min read
Unrealised Loss Hits 22%: Pressure Builds, but No Capitulation Yet
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
3 min read
Bitcoin Stress Index at Peak: Market Absorbs the Shock
Synchronized collapse in flows and stress spike point to capitulation. The key question is whether the market can hold $76K.
2 min read
Extreme Long Liquidations Without Capitulation: Funding Rate Remains Positive
Long liquidations dominated: 96.7%, oscillator at extreme; 30D SMA = 31.4%. Funding remains positive: 43.2% annualized, demand for long exposure is not broken - risk of repeated squeeze on new downside impulses persists.
4 min read
Fed and On-Chain Flows: Why Risk Is Decreasing
The Fed left rates unchanged, rhetoric remained hawkish - the market did not see a quick "pivot." Against this backdrop, STH Realized Cap continues to decline and has dropped below $600B (approximately $599.8B).
3 min read
Bearish Momentum Weakens, Fed to Set the Market Rhythm
Today's FOMC is the key macro trigger, while BTC's internal structure has already improved over recent days. If financial conditions do not tighten, the bounce may solidify, but if the dollar and yields strengthen, the market will quickly return to defensive mode.
3 min read
New Record Derivatives Pressure, but Price Holds
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
4 min read
Net Realized P/L at Zero: June 2022 Pattern Repeats
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
4 min read
83 Days Without Bull Mode: Trend Pulse Confirms Structural Weakness
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
4 min read
+17K BTC to Exchanges in 2 Days: The $90K Breakdown Was Premeditated
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
4 min read
$90K - STH Defense Line: Hold or Capitulation
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
3 min read