Daily Bitcoin analysis focused on market structure, liquidity flows, and macro signals. Adler AM is updated 5× per week - clear insights, no noise.
Long liquidations dominated: 96.7%, oscillator at extreme; 30D SMA = 31.4%. Funding remains positive: 43.2% annualized, demand for long exposure is not broken - risk of repeated squeeze on new downside impulses persists.
The Fed left rates unchanged, rhetoric remained hawkish - the market did not see a quick "pivot." Against this backdrop, STH Realized Cap continues to decline and has dropped below $600B (approximately $599.8B).
Today's FOMC is the key macro trigger, while BTC's internal structure has already improved over recent days. If financial conditions do not tighten, the bounce may solidify, but if the dollar and yields strengthen, the market will quickly return to defensive mode.
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
Sellers have regained control on derivatives after several weeks of buyer dominance, while US spot is not providing counter-demand - both signals point to a risk-off regime.
Overheated sentiment in the 80% zone ended with a $205M long liquidation cascade and a regime change.
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.
