Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L 7DMA deepens to -$410M as STH SOPR holds below 1.0 for 9 days. Short-term capital under stress. Watch for return above neutral.
68% of BTC supply held by dolphins, whales and fish. Spending transactions at 532K vs SMA-30D 473K - network activity holds above trend.
STH Realized Price sits at $85,831 vs BTC at $66,946. YoY turned negative for first time since 2022. SOPR below 1.0 for 110+ days.
LTH SOPR dropped below 1.0 in late February while net positions stay positive. Accumulation holds - but forced selling pressure is building.
Bitcoin ETF funds absorbed +63,000 BTC in 30 days. Weekly inflow pace is 2.6x the monthly average. STH holders remain underwater at -15.5K BTC/day.
Miner OTC balances sit near multi-year lows at 152K BTC, while exchange inflow 30DMA stays elevated. What this mixed signal means for Bitcoin supply pressure.
Exchange Whale Ratio spiked above its averages while the 100-1K BTC band hit 80% of inflow. Two signals point to rising large-seller pressure.
Bitcoin realized price map reveals three key levels: ETF resistance at $80K, whale decision zone at $68K, and deep structural support at $47K.
Bitcoin Net Realized PnL hits cycle lows while Supply Active 30D Change compresses. Selling exhaustion signal - watch for PnL 7DMA reversal.
USDC+USDT exchange inflow fell to 0.68x annual norm. Market cap reversed from -$8.1B to +$4.5B. Watch for 30DMA to cross $4.05B as the bull trigger.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score dropped 74% from its October peak. aSOPR below 1.0 for 55 days straight. Overheating is gone - sellers aren't done yet.
ETF flows turned positive after February's capitulation, but the cohort stays underwater. Realized Price at $79,962 is the key resistance to watch.
