Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score cooled to 0.32 as net realized losses ran 22 straight days. Stress is real but valuation already reset; watch losses ease to zero.
Bitcoin tests its $62K February low as net realized losses hit $7B. The $54K aggregate cost basis is the final support before full capitulation.
Bitcoin's May rally has unwound to the $70K zone as exchange netflows flipped to inflows and long liquidations dominate. Watch 30D netflow for a turn.
Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.
BlackRock withdrew 7,048 BTC from IBIT while Strategy-linked wallets sent 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Supply is moving closer to the order book.
Bitcoin 30D net flow flips positive at +103K BTC as stablecoins drain from exchanges. Double risk-off signal - what triggers a regime change.
Bitcoin Structure Shift fell from +0.78 to -0.56 in 3 weeks. STH flipped to loss-taking. Price tests Donchian Support at $74.5K.
Exchange netflow rose +18K BTC while US spot ETFs lost 16K BTC, creating 34K BTC of local selling pressure with no demand to absorb it.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L turned negative at -$176M as STH cost basis holds at $80.2K above price. Watch $80.2K for regime shift signal.
Coinbase Premium Index hit −0.098 - the lowest in May. BTC futures OI stayed flat at 293–303K BTC. The bounce lacks U.S. demand confirmation.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit SMA-7D recovered from 53.6% to 63% since March lows. STH-SOPR remains near 1.0 without confirmation. Key level: $76k–$77k.
Bitcoin Bull–Bear Index dropped to –23.5, Price Structure at –0.56. Bulls failed to hold above zero in early May. Watch ETF inflows and EMA for regime shift.
