Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
STH SOPR stalls below 1.0 as Bitcoin fails 200D SMA three times. Short-term holders sell into every rally. Key level to watch: $82.1K.
STH Loss Pressure hits 0% for 5 consecutive days as BTC trades above $81K. STH Supply Share at 90-day lows. Seller pressure eliminated.
Bitcoin retail demand 30D change reversed from -8.2% to +4.4% by May 12. Zero line crossed April 27. Transfer volume recovering - watch $360M.
Bitcoin exited panic selling, but Realized Cap Net Position Change is 98% weaker than March and December 2024 peaks. Recovery phase, not risk-on.
Bitcoin holds $81K but Coinbase IFP is below its 90-day average and Premium Index is negative. US spot demand shows no confirmation of the rally.
Realized Cap Change 30D exits 75-day negative cycle at just +0.22%. HODL Waves reveal STH sellers exhausted - but no new spot buyer confirmed yet.
Bitcoin exchange reserve hit 2,685,541 BTC as netflow spiked +8,512 BTC. Coins are on exchanges but not selling. Watch reserve reversal near $78K.
Bitcoin Realized Loss 7-day Sum spiked to $5.97B on Apr 24 as BTC recovered to $78K. Underwater holders exit. Key level to watch: $3B.
BTC is approaching the STH cost basis at $82.2K - a key breakeven zone for recent buyers. Exchange inflow spread has risen from October lows, signaling easing sell pressure.
Bitcoin STH discount narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7% in April. STH-SOPR 7D returned above 1.0. Key level to watch: BTC above $83K cost basis.
Bitcoin 30D Net Flow hit -300K BTC in March as exchange reserves shed 105K BTC over 7 weeks. Supply contracting - watch the -50K flow threshold.
LTH Realized Supply surged from 5.26M to 8.32M BTC in 3 months. But LTH SOPR fell below 1.0 - watch the March low at 0.798 as the key level.
