Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Bitcoin Structure Shift fell from +0.78 to -0.56 in 3 weeks. STH flipped to loss-taking. Price tests Donchian Support at $74.5K.
Exchange netflow rose +18K BTC while US spot ETFs lost 16K BTC, creating 34K BTC of local selling pressure with no demand to absorb it.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L turned negative at -$176M as STH cost basis holds at $80.2K above price. Watch $80.2K for regime shift signal.
Coinbase Premium Index hit −0.098 - the lowest in May. BTC futures OI stayed flat at 293–303K BTC. The bounce lacks U.S. demand confirmation.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit SMA-7D recovered from 53.6% to 63% since March lows. STH-SOPR remains near 1.0 without confirmation. Key level: $76k–$77k.
Bitcoin Bull–Bear Index dropped to –23.5, Price Structure at –0.56. Bulls failed to hold above zero in early May. Watch ETF inflows and EMA for regime shift.
STH SOPR stalls below 1.0 as Bitcoin fails 200D SMA three times. Short-term holders sell into every rally. Key level to watch: $82.1K.
STH Loss Pressure hits 0% for 5 consecutive days as BTC trades above $81K. STH Supply Share at 90-day lows. Seller pressure eliminated.
Bitcoin retail demand 30D change reversed from -8.2% to +4.4% by May 12. Zero line crossed April 27. Transfer volume recovering - watch $360M.
Bitcoin exited panic selling, but Realized Cap Net Position Change is 98% weaker than March and December 2024 peaks. Recovery phase, not risk-on.
Bitcoin holds $81K but Coinbase IFP is below its 90-day average and Premium Index is negative. US spot demand shows no confirmation of the rally.
Realized Cap Change 30D exits 75-day negative cycle at just +0.22%. HODL Waves reveal STH sellers exhausted - but no new spot buyer confirmed yet.
