Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Realized Cap dropped 3.23% since Jan 2026. Growth Rate 365DMA negative all 105 days. Outflow slowing in April - reversal signal to watch.
Bull-Bear Structure Index returns above baseline while P/L sentiment stays negative. Recovery phase confirmed - full bull regime not yet.
Bitcoin ETF Realized Price hits $74,232 - the break-even level for ETF holders. STH Cost Basis at $83,734 remains key resistance to watch.
Exchange Netflow SMA-7D rebounded from -15,216 BTC to near zero. ETF flows recovered to +1,835 BTC after the April 7 drop.
Bitcoin trades $1K above 1.25x Realized Price after a 44.8% drawdown. Holding this zone keeps recovery open. Break below targets $54-58K.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L 7DMA deepens to -$410M as STH SOPR holds below 1.0 for 9 days. Short-term capital under stress. Watch for return above neutral.
68% of BTC supply held by dolphins, whales and fish. Spending transactions at 532K vs SMA-30D 473K - network activity holds above trend.
STH Realized Price sits at $85,831 vs BTC at $66,946. YoY turned negative for first time since 2022. SOPR below 1.0 for 110+ days.
LTH SOPR dropped below 1.0 in late February while net positions stay positive. Accumulation holds - but forced selling pressure is building.
Bitcoin ETF funds absorbed +63,000 BTC in 30 days. Weekly inflow pace is 2.6x the monthly average. STH holders remain underwater at -15.5K BTC/day.
Miner OTC balances sit near multi-year lows at 152K BTC, while exchange inflow 30DMA stays elevated. What this mixed signal means for Bitcoin supply pressure.
Exchange Whale Ratio spiked above its averages while the 100-1K BTC band hit 80% of inflow. Two signals point to rising large-seller pressure.
