Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Bitcoin Bull–Bear Index dropped to –23.5, Price Structure at –0.56. Bulls failed to hold above zero in early May. Watch ETF inflows and EMA for regime shift.
STH SOPR stalls below 1.0 as Bitcoin fails 200D SMA three times. Short-term holders sell into every rally. Key level to watch: $82.1K.
STH Loss Pressure hits 0% for 5 consecutive days as BTC trades above $81K. STH Supply Share at 90-day lows. Seller pressure eliminated.
Bitcoin retail demand 30D change reversed from -8.2% to +4.4% by May 12. Zero line crossed April 27. Transfer volume recovering - watch $360M.
Bitcoin exited panic selling, but Realized Cap Net Position Change is 98% weaker than March and December 2024 peaks. Recovery phase, not risk-on.
Bitcoin holds $81K but Coinbase IFP is below its 90-day average and Premium Index is negative. US spot demand shows no confirmation of the rally.
Realized Cap Change 30D exits 75-day negative cycle at just +0.22%. HODL Waves reveal STH sellers exhausted - but no new spot buyer confirmed yet.
Bitcoin exchange reserve hit 2,685,541 BTC as netflow spiked +8,512 BTC. Coins are on exchanges but not selling. Watch reserve reversal near $78K.
Bitcoin Realized Loss 7-day Sum spiked to $5.97B on Apr 24 as BTC recovered to $78K. Underwater holders exit. Key level to watch: $3B.
BTC is approaching the STH cost basis at $82.2K - a key breakeven zone for recent buyers. Exchange inflow spread has risen from October lows, signaling easing sell pressure.
Bitcoin STH discount narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7% in April. STH-SOPR 7D returned above 1.0. Key level to watch: BTC above $83K cost basis.
Bitcoin 30D Net Flow hit -300K BTC in March as exchange reserves shed 105K BTC over 7 weeks. Supply contracting - watch the -50K flow threshold.
