Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Bitcoin exchange reserve hit 2,685,541 BTC as netflow spiked +8,512 BTC. Coins are on exchanges but not selling. Watch reserve reversal near $78K.
Bitcoin Realized Loss 7-day Sum spiked to $5.97B on Apr 24 as BTC recovered to $78K. Underwater holders exit. Key level to watch: $3B.
BTC is approaching the STH cost basis at $82.2K - a key breakeven zone for recent buyers. Exchange inflow spread has risen from October lows, signaling easing sell pressure.
Bitcoin STH discount narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7% in April. STH-SOPR 7D returned above 1.0. Key level to watch: BTC above $83K cost basis.
Bitcoin 30D Net Flow hit -300K BTC in March as exchange reserves shed 105K BTC over 7 weeks. Supply contracting - watch the -50K flow threshold.
LTH Realized Supply surged from 5.26M to 8.32M BTC in 3 months. But LTH SOPR fell below 1.0 - watch the March low at 0.798 as the key level.
Realized Cap dropped 3.23% since Jan 2026. Growth Rate 365DMA negative all 105 days. Outflow slowing in April - reversal signal to watch.
Bull-Bear Structure Index returns above baseline while P/L sentiment stays negative. Recovery phase confirmed - full bull regime not yet.
Bitcoin ETF Realized Price hits $74,232 - the break-even level for ETF holders. STH Cost Basis at $83,734 remains key resistance to watch.
Exchange Netflow SMA-7D rebounded from -15,216 BTC to near zero. ETF flows recovered to +1,835 BTC after the April 7 drop.
Bitcoin trades $1K above 1.25x Realized Price after a 44.8% drawdown. Holding this zone keeps recovery open. Break below targets $54-58K.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L 7DMA deepens to -$410M as STH SOPR holds below 1.0 for 9 days. Short-term capital under stress. Watch for return above neutral.
