🎧 Morning Brief #158 - audio debate on today’s market setup
April's BTC recovery from $66K to $78K came at a cost - realized losses accelerated sharply toward the end of the month, peaking on April 24. Meanwhile, realized profit grew moderately and steadily, without euphoria. Together, the two charts describe April as a month of forced selling during a recovery, not confident demand.
TL;DR
April's BTC rally triggered a new wave of realized losses. The sellers were participants whose coins were purchased above the current price. Profit is rising too, but without signs of euphoria. This means the market is not overheated, but pressure from underwater supply has not yet been cleared.
Bitcoin Realized Loss 7-day Sum
The metric shows the total losses recorded on-chain over the past 7 days. When coins are sold below the price of their last move, the difference is captured in Realized Loss.
At the start of April, with price around $66-67K, Realized Loss remained elevated: $3.1-4.4B. This was residual stress from the February capitulation, when the 7-day loss sum reached $18.2B.
As BTC recovered in the first half of the month, losses began to decline. By April 9-10, the metric dropped to $1.7-1.8B - April's low and one of the lowest readings in recent months. This indicated that at $71-72K, pressure from underwater sellers had temporarily eased.
But in the second half of April, the picture changed. As BTC climbed to $76-78K, Realized Loss started rising again and reached $5.97B on April 24. After the peak, the metric began to decline: $5.8B, $5.6B, $5.3B, and $4.7B by April 28. But even after pulling back, it remains significantly above April's lows.
The main takeaway: the rally to $78K activated sellers who bought above the market - likely in the $80-95K range in late 2025 and early 2026. For them, the current bounce was an opportunity to reduce losses and exit their position.
Key signal of pressure clearing: a sustained drop in Realized Loss below $3B while price continues above $80K.
Bitcoin Realized Profit 7-day Sum
The metric shows the total profit recorded on-chain over the past 7 days. When coins are sold above the price of their last move, the difference is captured in Realized Profit.
At the start of April, Realized Profit was at low levels: $1.4-1.7B. This reflected the compressed share of profitable supply at a price of $66-67K.
As BTC recovered, profit grew gradually:
$2.0B - April 9
$2.8B - April 11
$3.5B - April 14
$3.9B - April 17
$4.09B - April 24
For comparison, during the euphoric highs of 2025, Realized Profit climbed above $20B. The current ~$4B corresponds to a moderate recovery, not mass profit-taking at a market peak.
The main takeaway: profitable participants are selling, but not aggressively. The market does not look overheated. The problem right now is not an excess of euphoric profit-taking - it is that underwater holders are still using the rally to exit.
A warning signal will appear if Realized Profit sharply accelerates above $10-15B on further price gains. That would start to resemble a local overheating. So far, there is none.
What Both Charts Show Together
April's structure looks like a transitional recovery.
On one hand, BTC rallied from $66K to $78K and Realized Profit started recovering. This confirms that part of the market is once again able to lock in profit.
On the other hand, Realized Loss rose more sharply and more forcefully. This means that the price rally has not yet cleared the market of underwater supply. On the contrary, it gave an exit to those who were trapped above current levels.
The coincidence of Realized Loss and Realized Profit peaks on April 24 reflects a surge in overall on-chain activity. But the quality of that activity is mixed: profit is being taken moderately, while losses remain elevated. The market is not yet fully cleared.
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FAQ
Why did Realized Loss rise if BTC price recovered? Because price recovery does not cancel losses for those who bought higher. If a participant bought BTC at $85K, selling at $78K still locks in a loss. The price rise simply makes that exit less painful, so some holders use the bounce to sell.
What will signal that pressure from underwater sellers is ending? A sustained drop in Realized Loss 7-day Sum below $2-3B while BTC rises above $80K. This will indicate that the bulk of underwater supply has already exited the market.
What would be a negative signal? A renewed spike in Realized Loss above $6B amid price stagnation or a correction below $74-75K. This would mean that sellers in loss are intensifying pressure again and could stall the recovery.
CONCLUSIONS
April 2026 displayed a typical transitional phase structure. BTC recovered from $66K to $78K, but the rally was accompanied by a new spike in realized losses. Realized Loss 7-day Sum reached $5.97B on April 24, versus $1.7B at the local low in mid-month.
Realized Profit also rose, but calmly: to $4.09B, with no signs of euphoria and without the overheating typical of local tops.
Current regime: neutral with a cautious lean toward recovery.
The market is not overheated, but has not yet been fully cleared of underwater supply. The main bullish trigger is Realized Loss dropping below $3B while BTC consolidates above $80K. The main risk is a renewed spike in loss-driven selling on a correction below $74-75K.
Further Reading
- Bitcoin MVRV Ratio: Definition, Formula & Cycle Signals
- Bitcoin Realized Price Bands Explained: Cycle Analysis, Signals, and Historical Examples
- Bitcoin LTH vs STH: Supply Dynamics, Cost Basis & Market Structure
- Bitcoin STH Realized Price: Definition, Formula & Cost Basis Framework
- Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): What It Is and How to Use It
- Realized Profit vs Unrealized Profit: What's the Difference
- Bitcoin Supply in Profit: Definition, Thresholds & Market Signals
- MVRV Z-Score: How to Identify Bitcoin Market Tops and Bottoms
- Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Profitability: Break-Even as Bull/Bear Signal
- STH vs LTH Realized Price: Support & Resistance Guide
- Realized Price UTXO Age Bands: Definition & HODLer Signals
- Bitcoin Dormancy Flow: Bottom Signals & Buy Zone Detection