Realized vs Unrealized Profit in Bitcoin: Reading SOPR and NUPL Together
The difference between realized and unrealized bitcoin profit, and what SOPR and NUPL showed together in each year since 2018.
By Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin on-chain analyst · Data from Jan 2018 to Nov 2, 2026
In short
- Unrealized profit is a gain on paper: holders who have not sold. NUPL measures it.
- Realized profit is a gain locked in by selling. SOPR shows whether coins sold that day made or lost money.
- In 2026, through Nov 2, coins were sold at a loss on 176 of 306 days, while paper profit stayed positive.
What is the difference in one sentence?
Unrealized profit is what holders could take; realized profit is what sellers took. A market can be full of paper profit while sellers are booking losses, because the coins sold on a given day are not the coins most people hold.
How do SOPR and NUPL read together?
As a pair: NUPL shows how much profit holders could take, SOPR shows whether sellers actually took it. Four combinations matter:
- High NUPL, SOPR above 1: holders sit on gains and sellers take profit. Typical for strong bull years.
- High NUPL, SOPR below 1: holders are in profit, but recent buyers sell at a loss. Typical for corrections.
- Low NUPL, SOPR below 1: losses on paper and in sales. Typical for bear markets.
- Low NUPL, SOPR returning above 1: sellers stop losing money, often the first sign of recovery.
What did each year look like?
Loss-selling days rose in bear years and fell in bull years, while average paper profit moved the other way:
| Year | Days SOPR below 1 | Average NUPL |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 247 of 365 | 0.26 |
| 2020 | 69 of 366 | 0.40 |
| 2021 | 80 of 365 | 0.58 |
| 2022 | 284 of 365 | 0.11 |
| 2023 | 118 of 365 | 0.27 |
| 2024 | 37 of 366 | 0.54 |
| 2025 | 66 of 365 | 0.51 |
| 2026* | 176 of 306 | 0.26 |
*2026 to Nov 2.
2024 and 2025 had high paper profit and few loss-selling days. 2026 looks closer to 2018 and 2022 by loss-selling, but its paper profit is like 2018, not 2022.
Why can sellers lose money while holders are in profit?
Because sellers are mostly recent buyers. Long-term holders bought cheaply and are deep in profit, which keeps NUPL positive. Recent buyers paid more and sell first when the price falls, which pushes SOPR below 1. That gap is what the short-term holder guides track.
FAQ
Is realized profit the same as SOPR?
SOPR is the ratio of sale price to purchase price for coins spent that day. Above 1 means those sales were profitable on average.
What was SOPR on Nov 2, 2026?
0.999: coins sold that day were close to break-even on average.
Where can I see SOPR and NUPL live?
On the SOPR chart and the NUPL chart, both updated daily.
Related: NUPL guide · STH-SOPR guide · Holder behavior charts