Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Bitcoin's valuation has fallen into the lower end of its historical range, but the price remains about 13.3% above investors' adjusted average cost basis. The first
LTH SOPR remains below 1 at 0.92, even though the average cost basis of the entire long-term holder cohort is still well below the market price. This means
The price has recovered to $64.6K, but two flow indicators do not confirm an influx of fresh demand. The Demand-to-Issuance Ratio and Net Age Flow are recovering
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
Stablecoin net flow has stayed negative for 35 days while BTC exchange flows sit neutral near $65K. No buying fuel.
New investor realized cap sits near yearly lows and STH SOPR holds below 1.0. Early stabilization; watch for SOPR reclaiming 1.0 to confirm.
Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.
Bitcoin Adjusted NUPL is near -0.13, underwater for six weeks. STH, LTH and aggregate converge; a sustained move above zero confirms a turn.
Bitcoin STH realized pressure flips to buyers at the lows while price holds the $61.6K cohort floor. Watch a reclaim of $71K to confirm.
