Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Long-term holder supply declined in August and began to stabilize in early September. Meanwhile, seasoned holders resumed taking profits, so the risk of selling persists. TL;DR Long-term
Outflows from miner wallets have increased significantly after several months of subdued activity. In late August, the MPI remained above zero for a third consecutive day for the first time
After the pullback, Bitcoin reclaimed the key short-term holder cost basis, while the technical pricing models chart shows price breaking above two of the three major moving averages on
Bitcoin's valuation has fallen into the lower end of its historical range, but the price remains about 13.3% above investors' adjusted average cost basis. The first
LTH SOPR remains below 1 at 0.92, even though the average cost basis of the entire long-term holder cohort is still well below the market price. This means
The price has recovered to $64.6K, but two flow indicators do not confirm an influx of fresh demand. The Demand-to-Issuance Ratio and Net Age Flow are recovering
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
Stablecoin net flow has stayed negative for 35 days while BTC exchange flows sit neutral near $65K. No buying fuel.
New investor realized cap sits near yearly lows and STH SOPR holds below 1.0. Early stabilization; watch for SOPR reclaiming 1.0 to confirm.
