Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Net UTXO Supply Ratio flashed its first BUY since November 2022, but Supply in Loss says the Bitcoin bottom isn't confirmed until SMA90 hits 50%.
Bitcoin exchange inflows are 50% above February while SOPR stays below 1.0, signaling heavier supply pressure and realized losses.
Bitcoin LTH MVRV fell to 1.24, near a yearly low, as price nears the $48.4K cost basis. Record 16M BTC supply signals holding, not capitulation.
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L stays negative a 5th month, but holder realized prices hold support at $48K-$56K. Watch this band for the next move.
STH realized cap drawdown hit -56% while aNUPL turned negative; LTH capital held near base. Pain is concentrated, not full cycle capitulation.
Bitcoin sales pressure stays silent for 1256 days as LTH realized supply matures toward 15M. Not a capitulation bottom - watch NUPL turning negative.
New Investor Flow turned negative at -$1.2B as fresh demand fades. BTC leans on Adjusted Realized Price at $58.4K — the line to hold before $46.7K.
Bitcoin's second capitulation wave peaked near $1.4B, almost half February's $2.6B. Seller exhaustion builds as the P/L ratio sits deep in capitulation.
Bitcoin SSRR hit the red zone at $60K as supply in loss overtook profit. CVDD marks the structural floor near $48K, the key downside level to watch.
BTC exchange inflows hit +114K while stablecoin flow fell to -105M. Supply up, demand fading - the structural cause of Bitcoin's 22% drop.
Puell Multiple 30DMA drops to 0.74 as miner revenue compresses. How current stress compares to 2018 and 2022 bottoms, and key levels to watch next.
Realized Cap 30D Change falls to -1.1% as $12B leaves the Bitcoin network. aSOPR below 1 for 13 days confirms capitulation. Key trigger: aSOPR above 1.0.
