Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Sellers have regained control on derivatives after several weeks of buyer dominance, while US spot is not providing counter-demand - both signals point to a risk-off regime.
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.
Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling coins at a loss since October 13, 2025. The weekly average SOPR remains steadily below one, while a negative Z-Score forms a picture of active selling at a loss.
Bitcoin drawdown at −33% vs historical −70–92%. CVDD shows price 2x above fair value. Early bear cycle stage - watch −40% threshold for deeper correction.
Bitcoin trades below key support levels - STH Cost Basis and moving averages. Both charts confirm: short-term holders are at a loss, and the current bounce lacks structural confirmation.
The market is in an accumulation zone. The On-Chain Pressure Oscillator holds near the accumulation boundary, while short-term holders remain at a loss relative to their average entry price.
Bitcoin LTH Distribution Pressure Index drops to -1.628, entering Accumulation zone. Long-term holders reduce selling to 221 BTC/day despite sitting in profit.
Market in stress mode: short-term holders are underwater and their cost basis is declining. This is pressure from above, but not capitulation - the buffer to critical levels remains sufficient.
Supply in Profit compresses to 13.5M BTC. SMA30/SMA90 convergence analysis and bullish cross forecast. Critical price levels and scenarios for Feb-Mar 2026.
This brief compares the current loss regime to November's capitulation. Core thesis: the market has already passed through peak stress, seller pressure is structurally exhausted, and conditions for a local recovery are forming.
This brief confirms the continuation of a negative capital flow regime: the weekly average in negative territory indicates that loss-making sales outweigh profitable ones. Until the 7dMA reaches zero, the market remains in a risk zone.
