🎧 Morning Brief #141 - audio debate on today’s market setup
After almost two weeks of continuous bearish regime, Bitcoin Regime Score has returned to positive territory for the first time: +14.1. This is the first recovery attempt following the failure of the March impulse, and it is unfolding against a backdrop of dissonance in the futures market: at the same time, the funding rate is dropping to -0.43%, showing that the derivatives market does not yet believe in this reversal.
TL;DR
Bitcoin Regime Score is returning to bullish territory for the first time after almost two weeks of bearish phase, but funding remains negative - the derivatives market is hedging against this signal. The main theme of the brief is the divergence between two market layers and the question of who will be proven right.
Bitcoin Regime Score
This is a composite metric built from six market and flow components - taker imbalance, OI, funding, ETF flows, exchange flows, and trend. Together they form an aggregated regime score on a scale from -100 to +100.
Throughout March 2026, the score held in positive territory from March 4 to 18, reaching a local maximum of +18.3 against a price range of 70-74K. However, from March 19 to April 2, a pullback occurred: the score returned to bearish territory, declining from -2 to -19, while price dropped to 66-67K. From April 3, a second recovery began - three consecutive days of positive readings: +9.9, +9.0, +14.1.
Key context: +14.1 is a repeated attempt to hold above zero after the failure at the end of March. The March episode showed that a single move into positive territory is not enough - it was quickly absorbed. Confirmation of the current impulse's sustainability will require the score to hold above +20 for 3-5 days without returning to negative territory. Until that happens, the risk of another pullback remains high.
Bitcoin: Funding Rates
The daily aggregated funding rate across all exchanges is an averaged rate that shows the direction of positioning in the perpetual contracts market.
Today, April 6, 2026, the funding rate stands at -0.43% - the lowest reading over the past two weeks. Over the past 30 days, 17 out of 30 days closed with negative funding, and the monthly average came in at -0.23%. This indicates that the derivatives market is systematically building short exposure. The spikes of positive funding at the end of March (+0.45%, +0.40%) proved to be short-lived and did not develop into a sustained long structure.
Negative funding alongside a positive Regime Score is a divergence with two possible outcomes. The first: the broader market signal proves correct, shorts begin to close under price pressure, and funding turns in line with the regime - this is the short squeeze scenario. The second: price fails to hold, Regime Score components weaken and the metric returns to negative territory - in that case, funding will have been a leading indicator. This divergence is precisely the key question of today's brief.
Right now two signals are pointing in opposite directions: Regime Score is recording the first structural positive after almost two weeks of bearish phase, while funding reflects growing skepticism in the derivatives market. The one thing to watch: whether funding begins to turn upward as price continues to rise. That will be the confirmation that the reversal is real and not just a technical bounce.
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FAQ
Why can Bitcoin Regime Score diverge from funding? Regime Score is built not only on derivatives metrics, but also on flow and trend metrics - taker imbalance, OI, funding, ETF flows, exchange flows, and trend. Funding, on the other hand, reflects only the positioning in the derivatives market. This is why the broader set of market signals can begin to improve earlier than derivatives themselves stop hedging risk.
What will confirm that the Regime Score reversal is sustainable? Three conditions are needed simultaneously: the score holding above +20-30 for at least 3-5 days, funding turning to neutral or positive territory, and price moving above local resistance with follow-through. So far only one condition is partially met - the score has reached +14.1, but the other two confirmations have not yet been received.
CONCLUSIONS
The brief captures a structural divergence: Bitcoin Regime Score returned to positive territory on April 3 (+14.1), pointing to a recovery in flow and market components after almost two weeks of bearish phase. However, the derivatives market has not yet confirmed this reversal - on April 6, funding drops to -0.43%, indicating that short exposure remains in place. The current assessment is cautiously neutral, with bullish potential only upon confirmation. The key trigger is funding turning positive while the regime score holds above +20. The key risk is a false move in Bitcoin Regime Score where its positive reading quickly fades and funding proves to be the leading signal.