Average monthly whale inflow to exchanges has dropped to a three-year low, while stablecoin netflow remains in positive territory.
TL;DR
Large holders have finished taking profits, but stablecoin inflows have slowed down, the market is in a wait-and-see mode.
Bitcoin Whale Exchange Inflow
Average whale inflow to exchanges has dropped to 1.7K BTC - this is the minimum for the entire observation period since 2023. Inflow peaks at 5K BTC and above coincided with local tops and matched profit-taking by major players. The picture is now reversed, whale selling pressure has decreased to a minimum.
Stablecoin CEX Flow
Stablecoin netflow is at the level of $20M, the flow has decreased from peaks of $200M+, but remains positive. The green line (30-day average of net inflow) shows a slowdown in capital inflow to exchanges after growth in September and November 2024. The peak inflow of $500M+ coincided with BTC's rally to $100K+
Whales have reduced selling pressure on exchanges, but new money in stablecoins is not rushing to enter the market either, while both indicators are in standby mode, the market is choosing direction.
FAQ
What does the current picture on the Whale Exchange Inflow chart mean?
The historical minimum of whale inflow (1.7K BTC) indicates that large holders are not taking profits. As long as whale inflow does not rise above 3K–5K BTC, there will be no selling pressure from the largest wallets.
How to interpret the signals from the Stablecoin Flow chart in today's context?
Stablecoin netflow of 20M is not an outflow, but not aggressive buying either. If stablecoin flow returns above $100M, the market will get fuel for purchases, a drop below zero will tell us that interest in buying has declined.
CONCLUSIONS
Selling pressure from large holders is at minimum levels - whales have virtually stopped selling coins on exchanges, which reduces selling pressure. At the same time, net stablecoin inflow remains positive, but has slowed to moderate levels around $20M, showing that fresh demand has not disappeared, but is not intensifying either. This combination forms a neutral regime in which the market is looking for a trigger to exit consolidation and can sharply choose direction at the first strong stimulating factor, whether it's a surge in demand or a new volatile shock.