🎧 Morning Brief 0089 - audio debate on today’s market setup
Yesterday the market broke through the STH defense line ($89.8–90K), dipping to $87K. Two indicators show this was no accident: exchange inflows began in advance, and short-term holders moved into sustained losses.
TL;DR
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
Bitcoin: Exchange Netflow (Total) - All Exchanges
Positive netflow = coins entering exchanges → increased probability of selling. Over January 20–21, approximately +17K BTC flowed into exchanges: +9,867 BTC on January 20 and +6,786 BTC on January 21. These are anomalously high values following a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of January. In the context of falling prices, such a spike more likely corresponds to supply preparation rather than neutral transfers - the $90K zone breakdown appears structural rather than emotional.
Today netflow returned to neutral levels (+296 BTC), but the accumulated inflow creates a supply overhang. Signal for improvement - netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which would indicate the overhang being cleared.
Bitcoin STH SOPR
STH SOPR measures whether short-term holders are selling at profit (>1.0) or loss (<1.0). The 1.0 level is the critical break-even point, which acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
STH SOPR SMA 7d dropped to 0.996 - sustainably below unity. At yesterday's drop low ($87.5K), SOPR fell to 0.965, corresponding to approximately 3.5% loss for the average STH transaction. Now with recovery toward $89–90K, the market approaches a test of the 1.0 level from below.
In this regime, the SOPR=1.0 level transforms from support into resistance. Short-term holders who bought in the $90–100K zone will get an opportunity to exit at break-even and will take profits. Reversal trigger - a break above 1.0 from below with SMA 7d holding above unity for 3–5 days, to filter out false spikes after the selloff.
The two charts together form a unified picture: exchange inflows showed seller preparation, while SOPR confirmed that STH have moved into loss territory. Recovery toward $89–90K is not a reversal, but a resistance test where sellers will get a second opportunity to exit.
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FAQ
Why is +17K BTC inflow significant?
Average daily netflow in January ranged from -2K to +2K BTC. Inflows of +9.8K and +6.8K on consecutive days are an anomaly, comparable to periods around local tops in July and August 2025. Such spikes typically precede or accompany phases of active selling, not accumulation.
How to know if SOPR=1.0 has been broken upward and the regime has changed?
A single touch of 1.0 is not enough - sustained holding is required. Key signal: SMA 7d breaks 1.0 from below and remains above for at least 3–5 days. Additional confirmation - netflow transitioning to negative territory amid rising prices, which would indicate accumulation rather than profit-taking.
CONCLUSIONS
The "breakdown" scenario from Brief 0088 materialized: the $89.8–90K zone failed to hold, price dipped to $87K. This was not an emotional move - exchange inflows of +17K BTC over January 20–21 show the pressure was structural. STH SOPR SMA 7d (0.996) is sustainably below unity, shifting the 1.0 level from support to resistance mode. The regime remains risk-off: while SOPR stays below 1.0, rallies toward $89–90K should be viewed as bounces to resistance, not the start of a reversal. Improvement trigger - SOPR breaking above 1.0 with 3–5 day holding and netflow turning negative on price rises. Main risk - continued pressure, where accumulated exchange inflows create a supply overhang.