Bitcoin's September rally brought a substantial share of supply back into profit: the percentage of coins in profit reached its highest level since January. But by the end of the month, upward momentum had fallen to zero. What matters now is whether the price can hold its current level.
TL;DR
September's rally improved holders' positions, but momentum faded by the end of the month. We examine how many coins are now in profit and which signals will point to a continued recovery or weakening.
Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit
From September 17 to 27, Bitcoin rose from $76K to $87K. During that period, the percentage of coins in profit increased from 65% to 73.8%, its highest level since January 20. By September 29, the metric had slipped slightly to 72%.
The percentage of coins in profit remains below its long-term average of 76%. A substantial share of supply last moved at prices above the current market price. The lower bound of the range on the chart is 60%. The metric remained below that level until August 21.
Bitcoin Impulse Performance
On September 22, the momentum indicator's fast line rose to 70 as Bitcoin approached $86K. Momentum then weakened, and by September 29-30, both the fast and slow lines had fallen to zero. Meanwhile, the price is holding at $83K. The rally has paused, but zero momentum alone does not yet confirm a downward reversal.
What matters now is which direction the indicator moves from zero. A move below zero would signal negative price momentum. In late May and early June, when Bitcoin fell from $77K to $63K, the indicator dropped to nearly -96. If negative momentum coincides with a decline in the percentage of coins in profit, some of the supply that returned to profit in September will move back into loss.
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FAQ
If 72% of coins are in profit, does that mean the market is overheated? This level alone does not indicate overheating. The metric is below its long-term average of around 76% and well below the upper bound of the range at 92%.
Does zero momentum mean a decline is starting? No. Zero means the indicator currently shows no clear directional momentum. A move below zero would signal weakening, rather than zero itself.
Conclusions
Following September's rally, 72% of coins are in profit, but price momentum has faded. A return to positive momentum, together with an increase in the percentage of coins in profit above 76%, will confirm that the recovery is continuing. The main risk is negative momentum alongside a decline in the percentage of coins in profit toward 65%. That combination would indicate that a substantial part of September's improvement has been lost.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.
Supply in Loss - Share of supply held at a loss to flag stress and capitulation zones.
NUPL - Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.
Bitcoin Analysis Framework - Multi-layer decision stack for cycle position, participant behavior, and momentum timing.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.