Bitcoin Hash Ribbons: Miner Capitulations and What Followed
Every miner capitulation in the hash ribbons since 2016, how long each lasted and the bitcoin price 90 and 180 days after recovery.
By Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin on-chain analyst · Data from Jan 2016 to Nov 2, 2026
In short
- Hash ribbons compare the 30-day and 60-day average hash rate. When the 30-day falls below the 60-day, miners are switching off: a capitulation.
- From 2018 to 2020, the end of a capitulation came before strong gains. In 2025 and 2026 it did not.
- Hash rate peaked at 1,313 EH/s on Oct 24, 2025 and was 937 EH/s on Nov 2, 2026.
What counts as a miner capitulation?
The 30-day average hash rate drops below the 60-day average. That happens when enough machines go offline that the recent average falls behind the longer one, usually because mining stopped paying. The capitulation ends when the 30-day average crosses back above. This guide lists stretches of 20 days or more.
What happened after past capitulations?
| Capitulation | Days | BTC at end | +90 days | +180 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2018 – Jan 9, 2019 | 72 | $3,637 | +46% | +246% |
| Mar 22 – Apr 23, 2020 | 33 | $7,506 | +28% | +71% |
| Oct 29 – Dec 2, 2020 | 35 | $19,441 | +159% | +89% |
| Jun 3 – Aug 7, 2021 | 66 | $43,812 | +40% | −5% |
| Nov 27, 2022 – Jan 14, 2023 | 49 | $20,876 | +45% | +45% |
| Jun 19 – Jul 22, 2024 | 34 | $65,938 | +2% | +54% |
| Jun 24 – Jul 22, 2025 | 29 | $118,799 | −9% | −22% |
| Nov 29, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 35 | $90,585 | −26% | −32% |
| Jan 6 – Feb 25, 2026 | 51 | $67,485 | +10% | +16% |
The 2021 China mining ban gave the longest recent capitulation, 66 days.
Why did the signal fail in 2025 and 2026?
Most earlier capitulations came after the price had already fallen far; miners switching off marked the end of the selling. In 2025 the capitulations came near the top, after the hash rate had grown fast and the price started to fall. Five capitulations from November 2025 to August 2026 show miners under steady pressure rather than one washout.
Where is the hash rate now?
Off its high. From 1,313 EH/s on Oct 24, 2025 it fell to 937 EH/s on Nov 2, 2026, a drop of about 29%. On Nov 2, 2026 the 30-day average was 4.8% above the 60-day average, so no capitulation was under way.
FAQ
What was the highest bitcoin hash rate?
1,313 EH/s on Oct 24, 2025, by the 30-day data used here.
Are hash ribbons a buy signal?
They worked well from 2018 to 2023. In 2025–2026 the price kept falling after recoveries. Treat them as a sign of miner stress, not a buy rule.
Where can I see the hash rate live?
On the live Bitcoin Hashrate chart, updated daily.
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