The share of Bitcoin supply in profit has moved out of the stress zone and returned to the neutral range. The pace of the recovery is now among the fastest in Bitcoin’s history. Today’s two charts show this move from different angles: the current level and its rate of change.
TL;DR
The short squeeze drove the price sharply higher and moved a significant share of the supply from loss into profit. The share of supply in profit has not yet reached historically high levels, but the momentum is already at an extreme. This shows the scale of the supply repricing but does not indicate whether the move will continue in the same direction.
90D Change in Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit
The metric shows how much the share of supply in profit has changed relative to its level three months earlier.
In early August, the 90-day change was negative and fell to -19%. This meant that a significant share of coins had moved from profit into loss over the previous three months. By September, the metric had reversed and reached +41%. Within a few weeks, the market shifted from a broad repricing of supply into loss to an equally sharp repricing into profit. The metric has been above its current reading on only 4% of all days in its history.
Momentum this strong shows the scale and speed of the recovery but does not confirm that it is sustainable. The short squeeze played a significant role in the move, so the metric cannot distinguish persistent demand from the mechanical repricing of coins following the sharp increase in price. Historically, readings this high have not lasted long, as the rate of change gradually slows.
Bitcoin Percent Supply In Profit
The metric shows the share of Bitcoin supply for which the current price is above the price at which the coins last moved.
In late June, the metric fell to 47%. Readings below 50% have historically accompanied periods of severe market stress and capitulation. By early September, the share of supply in profit had recovered to 69%.
The current level is well above the stress zone but remains below the 75-90% range, where the amount of supply carrying unrealized profit increases. Entering this range does not by itself indicate overheating. Assessing sell-side pressure requires monitoring whether profitable coins begin to move and flow onto exchanges.
The rise in the metric means that pressure from unrealized losses has eased. At the same time, the amount of supply whose holders can realize a profit has increased.
Both charts capture the same consequence of the sharp price increase. The first shows the extreme pace of the repricing, while the second shows its result. This confirms the scale of the move, but not the sustainability of demand or a shift in the market regime.
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FAQ
What does an increase in the share of supply in profit mean? A growing share of the supply is above the price at which it last moved. This reduces pressure from unrealized losses but also increases the potential volume of profit-taking.
What would signal deterioration? A return of the 90-day change below zero would show that the share of supply in profit is lower than it was a quarter earlier. A drop in the level itself below 50% would mean that a significant share of the supply had moved back into loss. Neither threshold alone determines a shift in the market regime.
CONCLUSIONS
The share of supply in profit has recovered to 69%, while its 90-day change has reached +41%. This is one of the fastest recoveries in Bitcoin’s history.
However, a significant part of the repricing occurred during the short squeeze. The current readings therefore show the scale of the move but do not confirm persistent demand or a transition into a new market regime. Further assessment depends on whether the share of supply in profit holds after momentum fades and whether profitable coins begin to create noticeable sell-side pressure.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.
Supply in Loss - Share of supply held at a loss to flag stress and capitulation zones.
NUPL - Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.
SOPR - Spent Output Profit Ratio shows whether moved coins realize profit or loss.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.