Since Aug 19, short-term holders have been transferring coins to exchanges, while their daily profitability metric has remained above break-even. Bitcoin rose sharply during this period, although it has already surrendered part of the gains from its local peak.
TL;DR
Short-term holders are realizing profits, while the price retains most of its gains despite continued transfers to exchanges. The next sign of market strength would be renewed price growth alongside continued profit-taking.
Bitcoin STH Exchange Inflow
From Aug 19 to Sep 10, the total inflow of coins aged up to six months to exchanges reached 549.3K BTC. Over the same period, Bitcoin rose from $64K to $78K, or 21%. Despite the transfers to exchanges, the price retained most of its gains.
After reaching a local peak of $81.8K, the rally stalled and the price pulled back by 4.1%.
Bitcoin: Short Term Holder SOPR
From Aug 19 to Sep 10, the daily metric remained above one for 22 consecutive days. This means that, in aggregate, the coins spent by short-term holders were worth more than their acquisition cost. The cohort was realizing profits, although some holders may still have sold at a loss.
As of Sep 10, the metric stood at 1.0104, down from a peak of 1.0451. The realized profit margin has narrowed, but the metric remains above break-even.
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FAQ
Can we say that STHs sold 549K BTC at a profit? They transferred 549K BTC to exchanges, but we do not know how much of it was actually sold. However, exchange transfers are generally treated as selling activity. At the same time, STHs were mostly realizing profits.
Were buyers able to absorb this pressure? Yes. Despite the large inflow of coins to exchanges, the price retained most of its gains.
Conclusions
The price remains resilient as short-term holders realize profits, although the market has pulled back from its local peak. A sustained move above $81.8K, with STH profitability remaining above break-even, would signal further improvement. The main risk is a simultaneous increase in exchange inflows and further price weakness. That combination would indicate that the market is becoming less able to absorb potential supply.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Exchange Netflow - Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
SOPR - Spent Output Profit Ratio shows whether moved coins realize profit or loss.
Coinbase Premium Index - Coinbase vs global market premium as a proxy for US spot demand pressure.
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.