Long-term holder supply declined in August and began to stabilize in early September. Meanwhile, seasoned holders resumed taking profits, so the risk of selling persists.
TL;DR
Long-term holders are taking profits again. Their holdings have begun to stabilize, but there is no sign of sustained accumulation yet.
Bitcoin LTH 30D Position Change
Long-term holder supply has declined by 98.5K BTC since the start of August. Supply began to stabilize in early September, but there is no sign of sustained accumulation yet. Meanwhile, holders have resumed taking profits, so the risk of further selling remains.
Bitcoin: Long Term Holder SOPR
From August into September, the average selling indicator was in loss territory. The indicator rose above one on September 5 and has since reached 1.140. This means that realized profits have exceeded realized losses in recent weeks.
The indicator remained in loss territory for most of August. Holders are now taking profits again, so the stabilization in supply has not yet removed the risk of further selling.
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FAQ
Were these 98.5K BTC sold? This is a net reduction in holdings that implies selling.
What would confirm an improvement? Sustained growth in holdings and a return to positive 30-day supply change. If the price holds up amid profit-taking, it will indicate that the market is absorbing the selling.
CONCLUSIONS
Long-term holder supply has begun to stabilize, but the monthly net change is still negative. Sustained growth in holdings will confirm an improvement, while the main risk is increased profit-taking that buyers cannot absorb without a decline in price.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
LTH-SOPR - Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.
NUPL - Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.