Bitcoin valuation models
Price relative to cost basis and long-run models.
Valuation models compare Bitcoin price with cost basis, holder behavior or a long-run statistical curve. Each compares price with a different base, so agreement between models is context rather than a price guarantee.
Today’s reading · data for (UTC)
Price vs cost basis
1.44Moderate premiumMarket value vs realized value: how far price sits above the average cost basis.
Open chart MVRV Z-ScoreMVRV Z-Score
0.79Market cap above realized capThe capitalization gap in its historical context.
Open chart NUPLUnrealized profit
0.30OptimismNet unrealized profit or loss held across all coins, as a share of market cap.
Open chart RHODL RatioYoung vs old coins
1,130Young vs old coin realized value: how heated the cycle is.
Open chartHow to read valuation models
Cost basis and price
MVRV compares market value with realized value; NUPL turns the same gap into a share of market cap.
Models have different origins
Observed price starts with the available data. Power Law has a separate model origin, and its forecast is not an observed future price.
Model inputs and reference levels
CVDD uses the full history of coin days destroyed and the daily close. It is a reference model, not a guaranteed support level.
10 valuation models charts
Price vs cost basis
Market value against what holders paid for their coins.
- Price vs cost basis MVRVMarket value vs realized value: how far price sits above the average cost basis.1.44Moderate premium
- MVRV Z-ScoreThe capitalization gap in its historical context.0.79Market cap above realized cap
- Unrealized profit NUPLNet unrealized profit or loss held across all coins, as a share of market cap.0.30Optimism
Holder-based ratios
Ratios built from coin age and holder behavior, each on its own historical scale.
Long-run models
Historical model bands and forward scenarios.
- Bitcoin Rainbow ChartVolatility-adjusted log bands that place price in its long-run range.DiscountBand 2 of 9
- Bitcoin Price ForecastPower Law model: long-range price paths and the corridor around them.$118,370Power Law median
- Long-term floor model CVDDCoin Value Days Destroyed model, a structural floor drawn from spent coins.$46,813CVDD to 2.5x
Price relative to trend
A price multiple with a fixed trailing window.
Long-run price average
A 730-day average and its five-times line.
Charts show the data. Insight reads the week.
- Which readings agree this week?
- Where do price, holders and demand disagree?
- Which changes deserve a closer look?
Adler ☕️ AM
Two on-chain metrics each weekday morning and what they mean today. About 3 minutes to read.
Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.Valuation models, explained
What does valuation models cover?
Valuation models compare Bitcoin price with cost basis, holder behavior or a long-run statistical curve. Each compares price with a different base, so agreement between models is context rather than a price guarantee.
How should the valuation models charts be read together?
Compare the dates and units first. The charts describe different aspects of the same market and are not interchangeable buy or sell signals.
How often are the valuation models readings updated?
Once a day, from full UTC days. Each chart displays its own date and keeps its last verified version when new data fails validation.