Long-term holders’ unrealized profit cushion narrowed slightly over the week. The monthly sum of declines in LTH supply also fell.
TL;DR
The price remains well above the average cost basis of LTH coins. We examine the shrinking profit cushion and the reasons behind the decline in the distribution metric.
Bitcoin LTH MVRV
From October 22 to October 29, LTH MVRV fell from 1.67 to 1.65. The market price is now 65% above the average on-chain cost basis of long-term holders’ coins. This cushion narrowed by 2 percentage points over the week.
With BTC at $80K, the cohort’s average cost basis is $48K. A further decline in MVRV would mean a smaller profit cushion. A reading of 1 means the market price equals the average cost basis.
Bitcoin LTH Distribution 30-Day Sum
Over the same week, the indicator fell from 310K to 240K BTC, or 22%. The metric sums daily declines in the supply of coins aged six months or older over the past 30 days.
The indicator fell because the declines were smaller in recent days, bringing the total down.
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FAQ
Does 240K BTC mean long-term holders sold that many coins? Spending old coins does not necessarily involve a sale or a transfer to an exchange. The coins may have been moved to new wallets.
Does an MVRV of 1.65 mean every long-term holder has a 65% profit? No. It is the ratio of the price to the average cost basis of the entire cohort. Individual holders’ results can differ substantially.
Conclusions
Long-term holders retain a substantial unrealized profit cushion, although it narrowed slightly over the week. The decline in the 30-day distribution sum shows that selling has eased. A rise in MVRV would show a recovery in the profit cushion relative to the cost basis. The main risk if the price falls further is a decline in LTH supply.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
LTH-SOPR - Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
MVRV Ratio - Market value vs realized value to identify valuation regimes and cycle risk.
NUPL - Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.