Bitcoin Stress Index at Peak: Market Absorbs the Shock
Synchronized collapse in flows and stress spike point to capitulation. The key question is whether the market can hold $76K.
2 min read
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Bitcoin Supply in Profit: Definition, Thresholds & Market Signals
Learn what Supply in Profit measures, critical threshold levels (95%, 75%, 50%), historical cycle patterns, and how to use it for risk management.
9 min read
Extreme Long Liquidations Without Capitulation: Funding Rate Remains Positive
Long liquidations dominated: 96.7%, oscillator at extreme; 30D SMA = 31.4%. Funding remains positive: 43.2% annualized, demand for long exposure is not broken - risk of repeated squeeze on new downside impulses persists.
4 min read
Fed and On-Chain Flows: Why Risk Is Decreasing
The Fed left rates unchanged, rhetoric remained hawkish - the market did not see a quick "pivot." Against this backdrop, STH Realized Cap continues to decline and has dropped below $600B (approximately $599.8B).
3 min read
Bearish Momentum Weakens, Fed to Set the Market Rhythm
Today's FOMC is the key macro trigger, while BTC's internal structure has already improved over recent days. If financial conditions do not tighten, the bounce may solidify, but if the dollar and yields strengthen, the market will quickly return to defensive mode.
3 min read
Realized Profit vs Unrealized Profit: What's the Difference?
Understand the UTXO mechanics behind realized vs unrealized profit, how NUPL is built, and how to use these signals for Bitcoin market cycle analysis.
9 min read
New Record Derivatives Pressure, but Price Holds
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
4 min read
Net Realized P/L at Zero: June 2022 Pattern Repeats
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
4 min read
MVRV Z-Score: How to Identify Bitcoin Market Tops and Bottoms
Learn how MVRV Z-Score works, key thresholds, common mistakes, ETF impact, and a practical multi-indicator framework with real historical examples.
9 min read
83 Days Without Bull Mode: Trend Pulse Confirms Structural Weakness
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
4 min read
+17K BTC to Exchanges in 2 Days: The $90K Breakdown Was Premeditated
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
4 min read
$90K - STH Defense Line: Hold or Capitulation
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
3 min read