Smoothed positioning has moved into a sustained bullish zone for the first time in three months. Sentiment confirms the local regime shift.
Learn how Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) works: formula, historical zones, cycle signals, and how to combine with MVRV for better market timing.
Bitcoin realized volatility fell to 23.6%. Market compression suggests elevated breakout risk. Data-driven analysis of volatility and price range structure.
Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling coins at a loss since October 13, 2025. The weekly average SOPR remains steadily below one, while a negative Z-Score forms a picture of active selling at a loss.
MVRV Ratio definition: compares Bitcoin market cap to realized cap. Formula, interpretation zones, historical cycle tops/bottoms, and how to combine with other metrics.
Bitcoin drawdown at −33% vs historical −70–92%. CVDD shows price 2x above fair value. Early bear cycle stage - watch −40% threshold for deeper correction.
Bitcoin trades below key support levels - STH Cost Basis and moving averages. Both charts confirm: short-term holders are at a loss, and the current bounce lacks structural confirmation.
Bitcoin recovered above $92,000 amid a return of risk appetite. The composite derivatives pressure index has returned to positive territory, but spot market is currently leading the rally rather than leverage - structurally, this is a healthier dynamic.
The market is in an accumulation zone. The On-Chain Pressure Oscillator holds near the accumulation boundary, while short-term holders remain at a loss relative to their average entry price.
How to Use Decision Terminal
Bitcoin Realized Price Bands definition: formula, cycle signals, and historical extremes. How to identify tops and bottoms using on-chain valuation zones.
Structural indicators are signaling a synchronized transition from a phase of weakness into a phase of strength. The key question is whether price can establish itself above the upper channel boundary to continue the move.
